The investment opportunity brought by supply side clearing is that the number of supply manufacturers decreases significantly in the short term under the impact of extreme events or driven by policies; In the process of maintaining or returning to the normal level of demand, the limited supply has led to the reversal of profits of relevant industries, especially leading companies. In the history of resumption of trading, the industry performance after supply side clearing has something in common: clearing events and policy landing are buying signals, and the upward support comes from performance.
2021 real estate: debt risks of Evergrande and real estate enterprises began to be exposed intensively on August 21. The stock price of poly industry continued to rise. Upward support of stock price: due to the implementation of urban policies, many places have issued real estate relaxation policies; The performance toughness of leading 21q3 is stronger than that of the industry as a whole.
2018 pig cycle: 18 / 8 African swine fever was introduced into China Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) share prices rose in August, and the industry as a whole lagged behind by 2 months. Upward support of share price: after the supply side is cleared, the pig price continues to rise from January 2019; The overall and leading profits of the industry improved significantly in 2019.
2016 supply side reform: the supply side reform is promoted from top-level design to practical operation. In the first half of 2016, the programmatic documents of steel, coal and building materials continued to be issued, and the stock prices of relevant industries rose. Upward support of stock price: commodity prices continued to rise from December 2015; The profitability of the cyclical industry has continued to improve since the second half of 2016.
2012 printing and dyeing industry: the implementation of eliminating backward production capacity in 12 / 7 has been strengthened. The industry and the leading Zhejiang Hangmin Co.Ltd(600987) share price at that time rose simultaneously. Upward support of share price: Zhejiang Hangmin Co.Ltd(600987) and the overall profit of printing and dyeing industry has rebounded since June 2012.
Outlook: where is the buying signal of the epidemic damaged industry? The impact of the epidemic on the consumer supply side is already emerging. The introduction of epidemic prevention and control policies and specific measures by senior management to promote the recovery of consumer demand may become the trigger factor for the recovery of stock prices in the consumer industry.
Risk warning: policy promotion is not as expected; Historical experience does not represent the future.
