Core view:
Recently, affected by a series of adverse factors at home and abroad, such as the accelerated tightening of monetary policy by the overseas Federal Reserve, the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated epidemic in China, the performance of the stock and bond market has been affected. In the intraday trading on April 11, the interest rate spread of China US 10-year Treasury bonds showed the first upside down since 2010. From the historical data, the narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States usually has a stronger suppression on the performance of treasury bonds. Recently, the fluctuation of foreign investment in domestic bonds has increased. The capital outflow of A-Shares has slowed down. We use two indicators to measure the cost performance of current stocks and bonds, that is, the difference and ratio between the reciprocal of Wande quana rolling P / E ratio and the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds. It is concluded that the current stock market is more attractive than the bond market.
Considering that the Fed's "rapid" balance sheet reduction and substantial interest rate hike will begin as early as may, the RMB exchange rate has remained stable under the support of the trade surplus in the near future. In the short term, China's monetary policy still has the condition of "focusing on me" in the short term, and there is still much room for overweight in macro policy.
Important macro data were disclosed one after another this week, and the market gradually entered the verification period of policy effect. The data show that steady growth has been achieved with the continuous increase of financial support for the real economy. The relatively bright social finance data in total is a boost to market confidence. However, the financial data structure reflects that there are still obstacles to the continued promotion of wide credit. The re spread of the epidemic has increased the difficulty of achieving the annual economic growth target to a certain extent. In order to achieve the growth target of 5.5%, it is expected that more positive monetary and fiscal policies will be introduced one after another this month. In the short term, the escort of the policy will provide kinetic energy for the rise of the overall center of a shares. In addition, in the context of the implementation of loose policies, interest rates will also have a slight downward opportunity in the short term.
From the perspective of steady growth investment, the development of infrastructure and real estate is highly deterministic. Data from January to February this year show that under the background of steady growth this year, infrastructure and real estate investment are increasing significantly. Among them, the investment in large projects in infrastructure investment has increased significantly, while large projects are mainly invested by state-owned and state-controlled units. From the perspective of market certainty, we believe that Chinese capital construction and real estate will usher in a better trend. It is suggested to focus on the layout of cement, steel, industrial metals and other sectors benefiting from the new construction.
The continuous war in Ukraine is still a key factor affecting markets at home and abroad. From the data, there is a phenomenon of structural differentiation in inflation at present - the price rise is upstream and the downstream is facing greater cost pressure. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine gradually evolves into a protracted war, the rise in the price of relevant industrial products may continue to drive the performance of the upstream cycle industry to maintain a high growth rate. The substantial growth of profits in nonferrous metals, mining and chemical industries is expected to promote the continuous improvement of valuation.
The US inflation data released this week hit a new high. With the support of economic data, the Fed is likely to maintain a more tight monetary policy path. Historical data show that US Treasury bond yields are indicative of A-share style. Spillover of Fed monetary policy
The effect will drive the A-share value style to win to a certain extent. In the short term, the market will gradually digest the aggressive monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve, which will drive the bond yield to continue to rise and suppress the growth style of a shares. In the medium term, as the market gradually adjusts its expectations, the possibility of a significant rise in bond yields will decline. If the inflationary pressure eases in the second half of the year, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds may gradually decline. At that time, the growth style may win again.
Investment suggestions:
In the short term, the stock bond price performance index shows that the stock market is more attractive than the bond market. In the medium and long term, under the escort of policies, China's economy is expected to rebound rapidly after the inflection point of the epidemic. At that time, the probability of the stock market bottoming out and rebounding, while the adjustment risk of the bond market is high.
In terms of a shares, considering that the current economic recovery is disturbed by the epidemic, more stable growth policies need to be introduced and effective in the rebound. Therefore, "steady growth" will still be the main logic driving the operation of the market. It is suggested to pay attention to the banking real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain, mass consumption and other sectors. In addition, considering the impact of the Russia Ukraine incident and the structural imbalance between supply and demand of bulk commodities, we expect the upstream cycle varieties to remain attractive in the short term. In the short term, the rise of US bond yields will continue to suppress the growth style of a shares. However, in the medium and long term, growth still has allocation value. In the growth style, the manufacturing industry will be the main force of the future market. It is suggested to lay out high-end manufacturing industry and new energy photovoltaic semiconductor field.
