Looking back on the A-share market last week, as the first week of the new year, the performance of A-shares was unsatisfactory, and continued to decline for several days, which further illustrates the weak pattern of the current market, and the market still lacks the main line that can drive investment sentiment, and the performance of the sector is relatively scattered.
As mentioned in Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , at present, the A-share market as a whole still shows an obvious structural market. In the window period of overseas interest rate hike, China is still expected to maintain a reasonable margin of liquidity. With this support, market may enter the “high-low switching” stage , and the undervalued sector is expected to be the first to be repaired, Previously, some track stocks with high congestion may face greater selling pressure in the adjustment.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan securities mentioned that last Friday, the Shanghai index continued to fluctuate weakly, the trend of the sector was divided, the financial, real estate and other industrial chain sectors recovered, and the trading of the two cities remained active, especially the reverse net inflow of funds from the North exceeded 9 billion yuan, which supported the market. With the continuous release of selling pressure, it is expected that the market is expected to stabilize and rebound in the repeated shocks, Pay attention to the change of energy and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) pointed out that A shares are still in the “feasible stage” and continue the balanced allocation of between high and low areas. As for the time and space for style switching between high and low areas, we need to wait for three factors to change : (1) the relative valuation difference between science and technology track stocks and stable growth stocks converges to the desired level; (2) The late Q1 market confirmed that the steady growth was not fulfilled as expected; (3) The stress test on US bond interest rates eased. It is suggested to continue the balance between high area and low area for industry configuration – 1. Stabilize the real estate chain (securities companies, white electricity and consumer building materials); 2. Double carbon new cycle + steady growth of new infrastructure (power battery, coal chemical industry and military industry); 3. Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing).
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that the current market is in a three-phase superposition period of “performance vacuum period, economic downturn period and epidemic recurrence period” . In this three-phase superposition situation, the original mainstream track has been highly valued, and the existing new plate has not emerged. Therefore, the market as a whole is in a weak shock pattern. In the short term, we can continue to lay out stable growth plates. At present, the prices of steel and coal are basically flat or even increased compared with the same period in 2021. At the same time, with the implementation of “steady growth” measures, the output of corresponding products will be released, so the performance in the first quarter is guaranteed.
In the medium term, with the release of performance forecasts or annual reports of various companies in February, growth tracks such as new energy and military industry sectors with more callback are expected to rebound. Because these sectors are still in the growth track, the industry growth rate will maintain high growth for a long time. When the valuation falls and the performance data is disclosed, their investment value will appear again. In addition, the tourism, pig cycle, post shipping cycle and other sectors with reversed difficulties will also continue to have phased performance opportunities.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the sharp position adjustment of institutions at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut to low”, and the collapse of high-level tracks reappeared. Stable growth is the main line for the first quarter at least, the market consensus on low-level blue chips will be strengthened, the starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed, and the short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point . On the one hand, the pre disclosure of the annual report is gradual, the performance of the high track is difficult to exceed expectations, the performance of the low plate is difficult to be lower than expectations, and the configuration cost performance changes one after another. The substantial position adjustment effect of the organization at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut low”, and the sudden collapse and reappearance of the high track is the main reason for the market adjustment in the beginning of the year.
On the other hand, infrastructure first and real estate later, the steady growth policy in the first quarter is expected to move from relay to joint force, and the relevant main lines have strong sustainability. It is expected that the economic data disclosure in the fourth quarter of 2021 will confirm the bottom recovery trend of the economy, and there is sufficient guarantee for stabilizing the economy and the market; In addition, the impact of peripheral liquidity expectations on the market is gradually weakening. the starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed. The first quarter is still the best time point to participate in the blue chip market in the whole year. The short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. It is suggested to continue to firmly layout around the “three low positions”.
Macroscopically, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that 2022 is likely to be a stable growth year, and it is expected to enter a warm-up period in the first quarter of this year; The second quarter of this year gradually entered the period of steady growth, and the fourth quarter gradually entered the effective period with the improvement of economic data and corporate profits. you can refer to the three stages of history to grasp the rhythm of industry investment. The steady growth in 2022 is different from that in previous years. It can be arranged in three directions . 1) Under the dual carbon goal, new energy infrastructure may become one of the main forces of steady growth. It is suggested to pay attention to photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and energy storage, and non-ferrous metals pay more attention to rare earth and energy metals. 2) Unlike in the past, it is difficult for traditional industries to expand on a large scale and turn to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) or digital transformation. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of industrial Internet and automation equipment brought by the increased investment demand for digital infrastructure. 3) It will be strictly implemented if there is no speculation on housing, but ensuring housing construction and urban renewal has become an important starting point for stabilizing real estate. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant sectors, such as urban pipe network, fire control, decoration materials, etc.
In terms of operational strategy, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that in the recent market turbulence, undervalued sectors such as real estate chain and infrastructure chain rose against the trend. Continue to be optimistic about undervalue repair. For the “new half army” and other hard technology sectors: combined with the five crowding index and previous callbacks, the current adjustment space has been relatively adequate. Focus on three directions : 1) real estate chain and infrastructure chain; 2) Securities firms; 3) With a long fight against the short, bargain hunting layout, and scientific and technological growth represented by “small high-tech”. In terms of investment suggestions, in the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued real estate chain, infrastructure chain and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long playing short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on five major directions of scientific and technological innovation: 1) new energy, 2) new generation information and communication technology, 3) high-end manufacturing, 4) biomedicine, and 5) military industry.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that continues to take “steady growth” as the main line, and manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround . 1) Areas potentially supported by marginal change or development of policies, including industrial chains related to stable demand for infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium – and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industrial homes, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation and hotels; 3) The short-term share price of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be restrained, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
(source: China stock market news research center)
