Key investment points
Investment suggestion: at present, we judge that the market probability is already in the bottom range, but the market environment is more complex due to high inflation and repeated epidemics. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) cash assets. For example: high dividend and high dividend assets such as coal, real estate, banks, (Chinese prefix) construction, hydropower and communication operators; (2) Independent of the macroeconomic cycle, the dilemma reversed the sector. For example, the pig breeding sector with the reversal of industrial cycle; (3) A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-2 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (4) New energy and other track stocks. New energy and other track stocks are still in the stage of industrial explosion, and there are still certain investment opportunities, focusing on track stocks with performance support.
Focus on hot topics: (1) sporadic outbreaks occur frequently, and prefabricated dishes have attracted extensive attention. On April 9, sun Chunlan, vice premier of the State Council, stressed the need to adhere to the general policy of “dynamic zeroing” without hesitation and wavering when investigating and guiding the epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai. The outbreak of this round of epidemic in Shanghai has not only led to a temporary shortage of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) materials, but also the large-scale sealing and control has also led to the change of normal eating habits such as hall food and takeout. Prefabricated dishes are “out of the circle” again with their long shelf life and simplified cooking process. We believe that with the recurrence of the epidemic and the change of residents’ consumption habits, prefabricated dishes may become an important choice for “eating at home” and “lazy house economy”, which is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate in the future. Relevant targets include: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) and Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) etc. (2) The opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified market was printed and distributed to help the development of the logistics industry. On April 10, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market were printed and distributed. We believe that with the promotion of the construction of the national logistics hub network, the vigorous development of multimodal transport and the further promotion of the standardized pallet belt transport mode, the logistics of the whole society may usher in obvious cost reduction and efficiency increase. In the medium and long term, there is still much room to release and improve the logistics market space and logistics transportation efficiency. Relevant targets include S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) etc. (3) Food security has attracted more attention, and the prosperity of the seed industry sector has continued to improve. On April 10, Xi Jinping General Secretary stressed that seeds are the key to China’s food security during his investigation in yazhouwan seed laboratory, Sanya City, Hainan Province. We believe that the world today is experiencing great changes that have not been seen in a century. Under the background that the state attaches great importance to food security, the seed industry sector is expected to continue to be overweight by policies, and the prosperity will continue to rise. Relevant targets include: Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from April 6 to April 8, the top gainers are western infrastructure, western cement, phosphorus chemical industry, Xinjiang revitalization and gold. The main reason is the impact of the “steady growth” policy, and the relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were cro, food safety, photovoltaic inverter, auto parts and Changjiang storage. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and there has been an obvious adjustment in the recent tightening of funds.
From April 6 to April 8, the top five gainers in shenwanyi industry last week were steel, building materials, building decoration, real estate and banking; The top five declines were power equipment, computers, electronics, medicine and biology, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are architectural decoration, banking, steel, building materials and basic chemical industry. The top five cumulative net outflows are medicine and biology, power equipment, electronics, computers and media.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; The risk of repeated outbreaks exceeded expectations.
