In March 2022, the import and export increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down
The year-on-year growth rate of exports in March slowed down to 14.7% compared with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to February. The main reason may be the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has led to global inflation. High prices have played a certain supporting role in exports. The recent rise in prices has led to a decline in the export volume of most export commodities, while the export amount is still rising. The negative year-on-year growth rate proves that overseas demand is gradually decreasing. Especially in February, most countries in Europe, America and Oceania lifted the "mask order" and even announced the end of the epidemic, proving that overseas resumption of work is just around the corner. In terms of import, the import amount slowed significantly year-on-year, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. From the year-on-year growth rate from 2019 to 2021, it can be seen that although the year-on-year growth rate of imports in March fell seasonally, and then superimposed with the high base effect in the same period of 2021, resulting in the year-on-year decrease of imports in March, the import growth rate slowed down for five consecutive months, reflecting the shortage of domestic demand to a certain extent.
The number of most export categories fell year-on-year
Due to the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of bulk commodities such as refined oil, natural gas, crude oil and coal were affected, resulting in a large increase in import and export in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2021, which were 46.7%, 68.7%, 39.4% and 69.7% respectively. In particular, the amount of coal, crude oil and natural gas increased sharply when the quantity was relatively small, probably due to the rise in energy prices caused by the rise in global commodity prices.
The impact of RCEP agreement was not obvious in the first quarter
Malaysia, Australia and Indonesia are the only countries with strong year-on-year growth rate in China. The remaining states parties did not show a good enhancement effect, and even some countries fell sharply year-on-year. Therefore, compared with the same period in 2021, RCEP agreement does not show a good effect to prevent mitigation. In addition, in the first quarter of 2022, only Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines surpassed the EU in year-on-year growth. The only country with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50% in 2021 and exceeding the EU in 2022 is Australia. Therefore, among the 15 parties, the year-on-year growth rate was significantly better than that of non parties, accounting for a small proportion. Therefore, compared with non contracting countries, RCEP agreement has no obvious promoting effect.
The growth rate of import and export will probably continue to slow down in April 2022
Under the constraints of various factors, the year-on-year growth rate of China's import and export is gradually weakening. Firstly, due to the high base effect in 2021, it is difficult to increase the growth rate significantly in the future. We expect to maintain low-speed operation in the future. Secondly, due to the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the export volume of most commodity items has decreased. A large reason for supporting the growth rate is the rise of prices, but the rise of prices is not enough to support the high growth rate of import and export. In addition, the impact of the epidemic, due to the frequent outbreaks in many places in China recently, the output of some industries has been restricted and exports have been reduced. Moreover, the closure of the epidemic in many places has led to low consumer demand and weak real estate market in China. Therefore, the demand for imports has also weakened. Superimposed on the high base in 2021, the import in April may run in a negative number year-on-year. Since the current round of epidemic started in late March, the impact on import and export will probably be more obvious in April. Therefore, we expect the year-on-year growth rate of import and export in April to slow down.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of commodity prices; Frequent outbreaks have weakened demand everywhere.
