Core view: major projects are an important part of China's investment system, including five-year planned major projects and annual local major project investment plans, national major projects and local major projects. Since the beginning of this year, the investment plans of 102 major projects in the national "14th five year plan" and 2022 major projects in all provinces have been significantly accelerated. We believe that due to the impact of tax reduction and fee reduction and the decline of land transfer income, the government's financial resources are tight this year, and the investment in general projects is objectively restricted. Major projects with financial guarantee will be the main force for expanding investment and steady growth this year.
Understand the two dimensions of major projects: (1) major projects can be understood from two dimensions. First, from the perspective of planning time, it is divided into major projects included in the five-year plan and annual local major project investment plans. Second, from the perspective of hierarchy, it is divided into national major projects and local major projects such as provincial, municipal and county-level projects. (2) Major projects are neither infrastructure investment nor fixed investment in the current year. In addition to infrastructure construction, major projects also include industrial and livelihood projects. We expect that the investment in major projects in provinces, cities and counties will be about half of the fixed investment.
102 major projects in the 14th five year plan: (1) 102 major projects can be divided into two categories: one is construction projects that form fixed assets (including single and bundled projects), and the second is major non constructive tasks that do not directly form investment. (2) Comparing 165 major projects in the 13th five year plan with 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan: in terms of quantity, 165 projects are listed in column 24 of the 13th five year plan and 102 projects are listed in column 19 of the 14th five year plan. In terms of content, the 14th five year plan has reduced projects in four aspects: talent, finance, marine and employment, increased economic security projects, and greatly changed the connotation of major projects still retained.
2022 major projects in all provinces: (1) the investment scale of major projects in 20 comparable provinces this year reached 9.7 trillion, with a growth rate of 9.7%. (2) Major project investment plans are often over fulfilled, with an average completion rate of 115% in 10 provinces in 2021. (3) From the perspective of centralized commencement, the commencement of major projects in all provinces this year is about one month earlier than that in the same period last year. The investment of centralized commencement projects in most provinces has increased by double digits, reflecting "appropriate policy force" and "maintaining stable economic operation in the first quarter and the first half of the year is very important to achieve the annual goal". (4) From the perspective of structure, major projects in all provinces include four categories: infrastructure, industry, people's livelihood and others (such as ecological environmental protection), of which infrastructure and industry often account for more than 75%.
How to raise funds: major projects are mainly guaranteed by financial funds. In addition, social capital (or private capital) is also encouraged to participate. The finance mainly guarantees the construction of major projects through special bonds and direct financial funds. In the financial expenditure, the priority of major projects and people's livelihood expenditure is high.
Major projects and steady growth: affected by the reduction of taxes and fees and the decline of land transfer income, the government's financial resources are tight this year, and the investment in general projects is objectively restricted. Major projects with financial guarantee will be the main force for expanding investment and steady growth this year. 2022 is the second year of the 14th five year plan. Compared with 2020, the closing year of the 13th five year plan, the project reserve is more sufficient.
Risk warning: the implementation of major projects is not as expected; The strength of steady growth policy is less than expected; Major changes in the epidemic situation led to the suspension of some projects.
