Inflation in March exceeded market expectations; The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI was the same as that in February, but under the influence of the base effect, the drag of food on CPI decreased significantly, the impact of industrial consumer goods continued to increase, and the increase of service prices fell due to the epidemic; The decline of PPI was slower than expected, the price of means of production remained at a high level, squeezing the profits of production side. The price of non durable consumer goods in means of living was significantly higher than the average level in the same period of history due to the impact of the epidemic. It is necessary to pay attention to the transmission of the rise in the price of means of living to CPI.
In March, CPI was flat month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, core CPI increased by 1.1%, which was the same as that in February, service prices increased by 1.1% and consumer goods prices increased by 1.7% year-on-year. From a year-on-year perspective, food prices fell by 1.5%, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.28 percentage points, non food prices rose by 2.2%, affecting the CPI rise by about 1.77 percentage points, of which the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.5% year-on-year, the increase was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, the service price rose by 1.1% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
In March, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI slightly exceeded expectations. In March, the base effect of CPI year-on-year growth rate disappeared, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded in line with market expectations, but the growth rate slightly exceeded market expectations. We believe that there are two main reasons: first, some products in food projects were affected by the rise of international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices and the epidemic situation in China, and the month on month growth exceeded expectations, such as grain, oil, vegetables and eggs; Second, the impact of rising prices of industrial products on CPI has increased, especially the impact of energy prices on the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas has further expanded compared with February. Considering that the impact of the epidemic in China in April still exists, and the international oil price and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price are still fluctuating at a high level, it is not ruled out that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will rise further.
In March, PPI increased by 1.1% month on month, 8.3% year-on-year, and ppirm increased by 10.7% year-on-year. In March, geopolitical and other factors promoted the continuous rise of international commodity prices, driving the continued rise of prices in Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , nonferrous metals and other related industries. Oil and natural gas exploitation, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, chemical fiber manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry together affected the PPI to rise by about 0.77 percentage points month on month, accounting for 70% of the total increase.
There are two aspects in PPI data. The higher than expected price of PPI means of production in March was mainly due to the further rise of international commodity prices, but the price of food and general daily necessities in means of living also exceeded the historical average level in the same period, which was mainly affected by the epidemic. From the production side, changes in the supply and demand pattern of international commodity prices may support the maintenance of industrial product prices at a high level, and continue to suppress the profits of industrial enterprises from the cost side. From the consumer side, the rising demand for non durable consumer goods under the influence of the epidemic may accelerate the transmission of the price of means of living to CPI.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
