Key points:
Event:
Denominated in US dollars, in March 2022, China's total import and export value was US $504.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. Among them, the total export value was US $276.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; The total import value was 228.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; The import and export balance was 47.38 billion US dollars.
The export growth rate dropped, and the export of mechanical and electrical products increased sharply
The export growth slowed down in March, but the exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products increased. In March, China exported 1.03 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products. In the first quarter, China exported 305 million yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 9.8%, accounting for 58.4% of the total export value. At the same time, the export of labor-intensive products maintained a good trend, in which the export of luggage, clothing and lamps increased by 32.6%, 10.5% and 9.9% respectively. On the whole, with the gradual repair of overseas supply chains, the dependence on China's imports has gradually decreased. Combined with the impact of China's recent epidemic, the export growth is facing a great test. However, the intensification of global inflation and the rise of most commodity prices still form a certain support for China's exports in the short term. Last year, imports and exports were a major force in China's GDP growth. Facing the complex and severe situation at home and abroad, there is great pressure on steady economic growth this year.
The growth rate of imports fell and domestic demand was weak
In March, China's import amount turned negative year-on-year, at - 0.1%. From the perspective of imported commodities, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrate, coal and lignite, crude oil and soybean decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, 39.9%, 14% and 18.2% respectively, but the import amount showed an upward trend except iron ore. The rise in commodity prices has pushed up the value of imports to some extent. Since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple factors, energy and grain prices have risen, showing a trend of volume reduction and price increase. In the first quarter, the import value of China's crude oil, natural gas, grain and other bulk commodities showed a double-digit high growth.
In March, affected by the multi-point outbreak of the epidemic in China, PMI fell below 50 and domestic demand was weak. However, as an important starting point for steady growth this year, infrastructure will expand domestic demand and be conducive to import growth.
Russia Ukraine conflict superimposes the epidemic situation, but it brings great uncertainty to the future
The direct impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global economy is limited, but a series of problems such as sanctions, inflation and supply chain crisis caused by the long-term conflict have brought great uncertainty to the global market. At the same time, China's current round of epidemic has shown multi-point outbreaks, which continues to impact the supply chain and drag down domestic demand. The severe epidemic situation in coastal cities such as Shanghai also has a certain impact on exports.
Risk tips
The geopolitical crisis in Europe has expanded, the global epidemic has exceeded expectations, and China US trade policy has exceeded expectations.
