Events
On April 11, the National Bureau of statistics released data that in March 2022, the national consumer price rose by 1.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, and the month on month increase was flat from 0.6% last month; In March 2022, the ex factory prices of industrial producers in China increased by 8.3% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the month on month increase increased by 0.6 percentage points.
Comments
The year-on-year increase of CPI expanded, and the month on month increase was flat. Focusing on the structure, in March, the price of food items decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.28 percentage points, of which pork price is the main influencing factor. From the year-on-year data, pork prices fell by 41.4% in March, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; On a month on month basis, pork prices fell 9.3%. In the first quarter, pork prices will still suppress CPI, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will remain low. The No. 1 central document emphasizes that pig production capacity should be guided and reduced in 2022, and pork prices will rebound in the two quarter. In the second quarter, with the opening of a new round of pig cycle, CPI will rise moderately. Except for food items, the prices of other seven categories of CPI rose and fell month on month in February, of which the price of transportation and communication rose by 1.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. Affected by the rise in international energy prices, gasoline and diesel prices rose by 7.2% and 7.8% respectively, down from the previous month. The current high commodity prices are affected by supply. In the follow-up, as the current Russia Ukraine negotiations have not made substantive progress, there is great uncertainty, and commodity prices will fluctuate at a high level.
The year-on-year increase of PPI continued to fall. PPI rose by 8.3% year-on-year in March, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. From a month on month perspective, PPI rose 0.6% from the previous month to flat. Under the expectation that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue, but the progress of Iran nuclear negotiations is expected to ease the tight supply of crude oil in the market, and the international crude oil is likely to remain high and volatile. The sharp rise in international crude oil prices led to the rise in the prices of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) related industries. On a month on month basis, the prices of oil and natural gas exploitation increased by 14.1%, and the prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 7.9%.
As the weather warms up and the coal mines in the producing area resume production, the coal supply will return to a high level. Coupled with the rise of temperature and the decline of coal demand, the coal price will fall back to a reasonable range in the later stage. The Russian Ukrainian conflict is a black swan incident this year. Under the influence of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, commodity prices have soared. Although the dispute has eased slightly in the past two weeks, the price of crude oil is still fluctuating at a high level of $100. Under the influence of the global energy crisis, commodity prices are still the main factor driving up the prices of industrial products. Only after the supply is alleviated, the high price of bulk commodities will be alleviated, and the cost side pressure of industrial enterprises will be alleviated.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic fluctuates more than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the monetary policy changes.
