In March, China added 4.65 trillion in Social Finance (expected value: 3.63 trillion), 3.13 trillion in RMB loans (expected value: 2.64 trillion), and M2 increased by 9.70% (expected value: 9.13%) year-on-year, all significantly higher than market expectations.
I. credit structure: still to be improved
In March, new RMB loans increased significantly by 1.9 trillion month on month, an increase of 400 billion year-on-year, and the structure improved month on month. However, the pattern of strong enterprises, weak residents, strong short-term loans and weak long-term loans continued. This points to the high growth of total credit, which is mainly related to the increased investment of banks under the "wide credit" policy, and the credit demand of residents and enterprises has not been substantially improved.
First, the financing needs of enterprises are still dominated by short-term loans, and the recovery of medium and long-term loans is limited. In March, new corporate loans increased by 880 billion year-on-year, an increase of 1.24 trillion month on month. On the one hand, after a significant year-on-year increase of 594.8 billion in medium and long-term loans in February, the margin stabilized this month, with a slight year-on-year increase of 14.8 billion. On the other hand, the performance of short-term financing (short-term loans and on balance sheet bills) of enterprises was significantly better than that of medium and long-term loans, with an increase of 905.3 billion year-on-year. Among them, short-term loans increased by 808.9 billion in the current month, an increase of 434.1 billion year-on-year; On balance sheet bill financing increased by 318.7 billion in the current month, an increase of 471.2 billion year-on-year.
Second, resident credit continued to be weak. In March, resident loans decreased by 349billion yuan year-on-year, with negative growth for five consecutive months, but the decline margin converged. Affected by the epidemic, the consumption scenario and willingness of residents were limited, and the decline of short-term loans expanded (a year-on-year decrease of 139.4 billion). Residents' medium and long-term loans changed from negative to positive, with an increase of 373.5 billion in the current month, but still decreased by 250.4 billion year-on-year, narrowed compared with the previous month (457.2 billion), pointing to the weak expectation of the real estate market.
Overall, the credit in the first quarter increased by 670 billion year-on-year, 95.7 billion more than the same period last year, and 823.6 billion more than the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 520 billion less year-on-year, which is still a big gap compared with the positive growth of 1.43 trillion in the same period last year, but narrowed compared with the decline of 650 billion in the fourth quarter of last year.
II. Social Finance: non-standard and government financing support
In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion, the second highest value in the history of the month, second only to 2020. The new social finance increased significantly by 3.46 trillion month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 1.27 trillion. In terms of contribution, the year-on-year increment of social finance is mainly supported by non-standard (33.6%), credit (31.5%), government bonds (30.9%) and enterprise direct financing (2.1%).
First, non-standard financing has improved significantly. Non standard financing increased by 13.3 billion in the same month, with a month on month increase of 518.6 billion and a year-on-year increase of 426.2 billion. Among them, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 28.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 258.2 billion due to the base effect, forming a significant support for social finance; Trust loans - 25.9 billion yuan, the smallest decline since May 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 153.2 billion yuan; Entrusted loans also increased slightly by 10.6 billion in the same month. The improvement of trust and entrusted loans points to the convergence of non-standard pressure drop.
Second, government financing has accelerated again. In March, the financing of new government bonds increased by 433 billion to 705.2 billion yuan month on month, a new high in the year, and further increased by 392.1 billion yuan from the high base in the same period last year. It is expected that the issuance of government bonds will remain high in the next two quarters, and the requirements of "the quota issued in advance last year will be completed by the end of May and the quota issued this year will be completed by the end of September" will be implemented.
Third, the growth rate of corporate bond financing slowed down year-on-year. In March, the direct financing of enterprises increased by 485.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.2 billion, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 165.1 billion compared with the previous month. Although corporate bond financing increased by only 8.7 billion year-on-year under the high base of last year; Corporate equity financing increased by 95.8 billion, a slight increase of 17.5 billion year-on-year.
