In March 2022, CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the previous value of 0.9%. PPI increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with the previous value of 8.8%; PPI increased by 1.1% month on month, with the previous value of 0.5%. PPI continued to rise month on month, with a year-on-year increase falling; CPI rose slightly year-on-year.
I. CPI: the decline in food prices narrowed and non food prices maintained growth
The year-on-year growth rate of CPI increased and fell month on month. In March, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI increased by 0.6pct to 1.5% compared with the previous month, and the month on month growth rate decreased from 0.6% to 0. In the 1.5% year-on-year increase of CPI, the tail warping factor last year affected about 0.4pct, and the new price rise factor this year affected about 1.1pct.
In terms of food prices, the year-on-year decline narrowed. Food prices fell by 1.5% year-on-year in March, narrowed by 2.4pct compared with the previous month, driving the CPI down by about 0.28pct. Among them, pork prices are still in the downward channel, with prices falling by 41.4%, driving CPI down by about 0.83pct. Maintain the judgment that there is an inflection point in pork prices in the middle of this year. With the opening of a new round of pig cycle in the second half of the year, the impact on CPI will change from drag to pull upward. On the other hand, affected by the epidemic in various places, the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits increased by 17.2% and 4.3% respectively, driving the CPI up by 0.37pct and 0.09pct.
Non food prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in March, an increase of 0.1pct over the previous month, driving CPI up 1.77pct. The price of transportation and communication increased by 5.8% year-on-year. Affected by the recent rise in energy prices, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.5%, an increase of 0.4pct over the previous month, of which the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 24.6% and 26.9% respectively, an increase of more than the previous month. The recovery of the service industry is limited due to the impact of the epidemic distributed throughout the country. Service prices rose by 1.1%, down 0.1pct from the previous month.
The impact of recent outbreaks on CPI can be divided into two aspects: on the one hand, it will push up the price of fresh vegetables in the sub item of food, on the other hand, it will suppress the price of services in non food items. The rise of international oil prices was mainly affected by the sub item of transportation, and CPI rose slightly. Looking ahead, pork prices will still suppress CPI in the first half of this year, and CPI will rise moderately in the second half of this year with the opening of a new round of pig cycle.
II. PPI: the rise in oil prices pushed up the chain and slowed down the year-on-year decline
PPI month on month growth maintained upward; The year-on-year growth rate fell, and the downward trend continued to slow down. In March 2022, the month on month growth rate of PPI increased to 1.1% from 0.5% of the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased by 0.5pct to 8.3% compared with the previous value. Among them, the tail warping factor contributed 6.8pct last year and the new price rise factor this year affected about 1.5pct.
Affected by the rise of international crude oil and nonferrous metals prices, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) related industry prices continued to rise, forming strong support for PPI, driving PPI to rebound month on month and slowing down year-on-year downward trend. The price of means of production rose by 10.7% year-on-year and fell by 0.7pct, driving the PPI to rise by about 8.08pct year-on-year. Combing along the oil industry chain, the upstream oil and gas exploitation industry increased by 47.4% year-on-year, expanding by 5.5pct compared with the previous month; The oil and coal fuel processing industry rose 32.8%, an increase of 2.6pct over the previous month; The midstream chemical raw material manufacturing industry rose 15.7%, down 4.0 PCT from the previous month; Chemical fiber manufacturing rose 4.5%, down 6.9pct from the previous month. In addition, the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry rose 18.3%, down 2.1pct from the previous month. From the perspective of month on month, the above industries together drove PPI up by about 0.77pct, accounting for 70% of the month on month increase of 1.1% in March.
Structurally, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial product prices is differentiated by industry. The price of upstream mining industry rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0pct to 38.0% from 33.0% in the same month; The raw material industry decreased by 1.2pct to 16.7% from 17.9% last month; The processing industry fell 0.9pct to 5.7% from 6.6% last month. Mapped to the profits of industrial enterprises, we can see that the profits of the upstream mining industry have increased significantly year-on-year.
The year-on-year growth rate of means of living remained stable. In March, the price of means of living increased by 0.9% year-on-year, which was the same as that of the previous month, driving the year-on-year growth rate of PPI by about 0.21pct. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial food was 0.8%, a slight increase over the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate of clothing was 0.8%, and the year-on-year growth rates of general daily necessities and durable consumer goods were 1.9% and 0.3% respectively, both of which decreased compared with the previous month.
The ppi-cpi scissors difference continued to converge, narrowing 1.1pct to 6.8% from 7.9% last month. However, affected by the high fluctuation of international oil and nonferrous metal prices, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI slowed down, the center moved up during the year, and the marginal adverse impact on corporate profits increased.
