In March 2022, China's export boom declined, imports turned negative year-on-year, and the trade surplus widened significantly. Denominated in US dollars, China's total import and export volume in March was US $504.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. Among them, the export was US $276.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7% (the market is expected to be 13.5%); Imports totaled 228.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% (market expectation of 8.0%); The trade surplus was US $47.4 billion, an increase of 302.1% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the export value increased by 15.8% year-on-year, 4 PCT slower than that in the fourth quarter of last year, the import value increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 4.7 PCT slower than that in the fourth quarter of last year, and the trade balance expanded by 50.2% year-on-year to US $163.3 billion.
I. export: the kinetic energy slows down
The year-on-year growth rate of export amount in March was slower than that from January to February, and the month on month kinetic energy was weaker than the average level in the same period in history. The export amount in March decreased by 49.3% month on month compared with that from January to February, with a contraction rate greater than the average level of the same period in previous years except 2020, and the seasonal repair kinetic energy is weak. In terms of quantity and price, the growth rate of quantity has slowed down in the past nine months, the contribution of price has increased, and the resilience of China's exports comes more from the price effect. The marginal decline of export boom was due to the feedback that production was disturbed by the weather and epidemic situation in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other ports in China in March, on the other hand, the decline of external demand or the main reason. The US inventory replenishment may have come to an end, adding that the EU economy is dragged down by inflation, and the subsequent external demand may continue to fall.
In terms of commodity categories, the export structure continues to change, mainly due to the weakening impact of Omicron on medical resources and travel social networking in the United States and Europe. Among consumer goods, clothing, bags, shoes and boots related to social travel increased significantly, and household appliances, audio and video equipment related to real estate and residential economy continued to shrink; The growth rate of epidemic prevention materials turned negative sharply. Or because the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed up the pressure of price rise and the importance of supply security, the export of refined oil and fertilizer shrank year-on-year. The overall growth rate of intermediate products in the manufacturing industry remained stable, but the growth rate of some commodities was differentiated. For example, the growth rate of general machinery and equipment increased, and the growth rate of integrated circuits slowed down. In addition, the growth rate of mobile phones has rebounded sharply, and the growth rate of cars and spare parts has fallen sharply, or it may be affected by seasonal factors and supply disturbance.
In terms of regions, the growth rate of China's exports to major trading partners in March was differentiated. The growth rate of exports to the United States and Australia rebounded sharply, and the growth rate of exports to the EU and ASEAN fell, partly due to the base effect and monthly fluctuations. However, the stagflation impact caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has seriously dragged down the EU economy, or is one of the reasons for the decline of EU export growth. Among the major trading partners, exports to the EU contracted the most in March compared with January February.
II. Import: growth rate turns negative
The import amount in March contracted year-on-year for the first time since September 2020, mainly due to the pressure of weak domestic demand and rising import prices. In terms of kinetic energy, the import amount in March decreased by 46.7% month on month compared with that from January to February, and the contraction rate was higher than that in the same period in the past five years. In terms of component price, due to the continuous impact of overseas stagflation in March, the RJ / CRB bulk commodity price index continues to rise rapidly, and the import price may still maintain a high growth rate. From the published volume value of key commodities, the general contraction of import volume is intensified.
By product, first, the growth rate of bulk commodities generally slows down or the contraction intensifies. Second, the growth rate of intermediate products in the manufacturing industry fell, among which machine tools, diodes and similar semiconductor devices increased negatively year-on-year for the first time since the record was released in 2021. Third, the overall growth rate of consumer goods was sluggish, the growth rate of medical instruments and devices turned negative significantly, the growth rate of automobile amount slowed down significantly, and the number continued to shrink year-on-year.
In terms of regions, the import growth rate of China's independent trading partners is now falling, and the negative drag on imports from the EU, the United States and Australia ranks among the top three, contributing a total of 3.2pct.
III. Prospect: exports face double pressure
In March, the export boom continued to decline, imports contracted year-on-year under the pressure of prices and demand, and the trade balance showed a recession surplus. Looking forward, China's exports are facing dual pressures. On the supply side, the control of the epidemic situation and the decline in the operation efficiency of China's supply chain may affect the supply of raw materials, production commencement and export transportation of export enterprises; On the demand side, the US and European economies are dragged down by the impact of stagflation, and the decline in foreign demand is expected to accelerate.
