Meso industrial chain tracking: profits are still distributed upward

Energy and resource chain: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to support the price of resource products, and infrastructure and real estate are upgraded. The price of power coal, aluminum and crude oil surged due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the early stage, and the price of relevant resource products fell recently. However, a new round of EU sanctions was implemented. This sanctions is the first time to open sanctions in the energy field against Russia. The price of upstream resource products such as power coal, aluminum and crude oil is still supported, and the shipping sector is expected to be driven. 3. With the outbreak of the epidemic in April and the upgrading of epidemic prevention nationwide, the consumer demand side was weak or further intensified. However, recently, the real estate policy has been continuously relaxed and the infrastructure has continued to develop. The prosperity of coke, steel and cement in the upstream of the infrastructure real estate industry chain has also shown a certain recovery trend.

Agricultural and animal husbandry product chain: the rise in global food prices drives upstream investment opportunities. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the drought in the United States and South America are expected to lead to the supply shortage of barley, wheat, corn, soybean, cotton and other Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) years, which will promote the continuous rise of prices. The drought in the United States from April to June may further aggravate. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to May to July, the corn sowing and wheat harvest will be further impacted, the food shortage may still intensify, and the seeds and chemical fertilizers may benefit from the rise of grain prices. With the rise of cotton prices, textile manufacturing is expected to be driven, and the increase of feed prices is also expected to accelerate the clearing of pig production capacity. At the same time, the increase of upstream prices has also compressed the profits of some downstream industries, such as beer and papermaking. On the other hand, the price of fresh milk continues to fall, the retail price of milk and yogurt remains stable, and dairy enterprises are expected to continue to benefit.

Industry configuration: the recovery of infrastructure real estate chain and the rise of grain prices. 1) It is expected to continue to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure real estate industry chain: real estate, construction, coke, steel and cement; 2) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the gap between supply and demand persists: aluminum, thermal coal and jointly beneficial shipping; 3) The rising global grain and cotton prices have benefited from the accelerated clearing of seeds, chemical fertilizers, textile manufacturing and production capacity, pigs that are expected to usher in a price inflection point, and dairy products that benefit from the decline of cost side and the expansion of profit space.

Risk tip: the economy is less than expected, the policy is more than expected, and the market fluctuation is more than expected.

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