Key investment points:
Export resilience fell and import growth turned negative
According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in March 2022, denominated in US dollars, the export was 14.7% year-on-year, the former value was 16.3%, the import was - 0.1% year-on-year, the former value was 15.5%, and the trade surplus was US $47.38 billion, the former value was us $71.71 billion, and the same period last year was US $11.78 billion.
The import and export started smoothly. China's foreign trade import and export continued the growth momentum and maintained year-on-year positive growth for seven consecutive quarters. Customs statistics show that China's foreign trade structure continued to optimize in the first quarter, with general trade imports and exports of 5.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Since the first quarter of RCEP's entry into force, the total import and export of China and other 14 member states has reached 2.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. By country, ASEAN overtook the EU and once again became China's largest trading partner, accounting for 14.4% of China's total foreign trade. Japan and South Korea account for the largest proportion of imports and exports between China and RCEP trading partners, both accounting for 20%. China and the "one belt, one road" along the same period of the total import and export volume totaled 2 trillion and 930 billion yuan, up 16.7% over the same period. Among them, the export was 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2%; Imports reached 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.4%.
From the perspective of overseas manufacturing PMI, the United States decreased slightly to 57.1% in March, and the euro zone also showed a decline to 56.5%, and the prosperity remained high. In terms of products, China's export of mechanical and electrical products in the first quarter was 3.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8%, accounting for 58.4% of the total export value. Among them, the export of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries, lithium batteries and automobiles increased by 100.8%, 53.7% and 83.4% respectively.
Import growth fell slightly. According to the released data, China's imports in March were US $228.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. On the one hand, affected by geopolitical and other factors, international energy and food prices are rising, pushing up the import value to a certain extent. On the other hand, the repeated outbreaks in many places in China have put pressure on foreign trade. In terms of quantity, the imports of crude oil, unwrought copper, copper materials and soybeans increased year-on-year, while the imports of iron ore and its concentrate and integrated circuits decreased to a negative number.
Overall, the decline in export resilience continues, and the decline in import growth rate is more obvious. On the one hand, domestic demand itself may not be strong, on the other hand, the logistics congestion caused by the epidemic may have a greater impact on imports. Looking back, the impact of the epidemic in April still exists, the export growth rate may continue to decline, and the import growth rate may remain low. After the epidemic is controlled, the import and export growth rate may both rebound to a certain extent.
The national Standing Committee releases the signal of RRR reduction
Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on April 13 to deploy policies and measures to promote consumption, help stabilize the economic fundamentals and ensure the improvement of people's livelihood; Decided to further strengthen policy support such as export tax rebate to promote the steady development of foreign trade; Determine measures to increase financial support for the real economy and guide market players to reduce financing costs.
The meeting decided to encourage large banks with high provision level to reduce the provision rate in an orderly manner, timely use monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction, further strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially industries seriously affected by the epidemic, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, reasonably transfer profits to the real economy and reduce comprehensive financing costs. From the published economic data, China's economy is under great downward pressure, and the market hopes to ease the downward pressure through loose monetary policy. From the time of the recent RRR reduction, the central bank will announce the RRR reduction within 2-3 days after the relevant remarks made by the national Standing Committee. According to the previous rhythm, the RRR may land relatively quickly.
