Core conclusion
Strategy Yi Bin: with the gradual stabilization of the epidemic in Shanghai and China, offline economic recovery is an important trading opportunity in the second quarter. The basic logic of offline economic recovery path is consistent with the relaxation direction of prevention and control policies. In various scenarios related to offline recovery, the recovery path follows: express delivery → flow of people, close consumption scenario → long-distance consumption scenario, required → optional, business travel → entertainment. From the perspective of market industry, the market repair of express, logistics, aviation, airport and other sectors is only the beginning. In the future, with the gradual verification of data, it is still worthy of continuous attention.
Social service / retail Xu Guanghui: promotion fees and precise epidemic prevention policies catalyze the expected recovery, and actively lay out the leader of offline consumption. First, layout the segments with the greatest damage to consumption scenes, including catering, scenic spots, tax exemption, medical and beauty leaders, etc; Second, under the huge impact of the epidemic, the industry pattern has increased towards the leading concentration, including hotels, outbound tourism dragon head, etc. Core portfolio: Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , jiumaojiu, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ; Elastic combination: Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , submarine fishing.
Food and beverage Xiong Peng: the marginal improvement of policy is determined, consumer confidence is gradually restored, and the bottom of food and beverage is reversed. Two main lines are recommended: first, the small impact of the epidemic and the economic environment, the low valuation of the early stage, the Baijiu liquor with strong performance and the high end liquor. Recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , etc. The second is the main line of epidemic repair. We are optimistic about the catering industry chain and beer sector, and recommend Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , etc.
Wu Dongju: policy improvement, layout leader and growth track. Focus on two directions: one is the layout of white kitchen electric faucet. The real estate chain will be improved, and white kitchen electricity with high correlation with real estate will benefit. Highlight Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) . Second, clean electrical appliances. The prosperity of the track is determined, and the good opportunity to buy is now. The leader still occupies the technical advantage, the R & D investment ensures the continuous leading of products, and has the barrier of brand strength at the same time. Recommend Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) .
Media Li Yanli: pay attention to film and television cinemas. After the epidemic situation is controlled, domestic films are expected to resume release one after another; Hollywood blockbusters have been released overseas since June, and some are expected to be introduced into China. The film list is significantly higher than that of last year. For the subject matter, it is suggested to pay attention to Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) .
Li Huafeng of light industry: the recovery of real estate policy is superimposed on the recovery of consumption, and it is recommended to be the market segmentation leader after home decoration. All localities have actively carried out city based measures, and it is expected that the subsequent sales will hit the bottom and pick up. From an annual perspective, the decoration demand has the characteristics of rigid demand, which was temporarily suspended due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage. If the control is gradually liberalized in May, we believe that the decoration demand is expected to be released in a centralized manner. Throughout the year, we maintain the judgment that retail is better than engineering in the real estate chain, and recommend the market segmentation leader after home decoration.
Auto Wang Yiwei / Luo Weining: after the closure and control of the epidemic area is lifted, the main theme is that auto enterprises guarantee supply and make up the gap. The performance of automobile sales in March 22 was poor, and the epidemic situation was the main influencing factor. The industry is at the key node of switching between old and new kinetic energy, and the closure and control of the epidemic area is lifted, which is expected to resume production quickly. It is suggested that stocks with more callback on the left and better performance in the first quarter. For the whole vehicle, Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; HUD and domain controller recommendation Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ; Recommendation in the field of air suspension Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) .
Risk tip: the progress of the epidemic has exceeded expectations, and the epidemic prevention and control efforts are greater than expected.
