Macro Daily: US CPI continued to rise in March, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in may further increased

Macro important news and events:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks on the same day. Putin said that Kiev “broke away from” the consensus reached by Russia and Ukraine during the negotiations in Istanbul, and the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine reached an impasse.

The minutes of the Fed’s discount rate meeting showed that before the FOMC meeting in March, the chairmen of the Federal Reserve in Dallas and New York sought to increase the discount rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%, and the chairmen of the other 10 regional Federal Reserve voted to raise the discount rate by 25 basis points.

The US CPI without quarterly adjustment in March rose by 8.5% year-on-year, the highest since December 1981, higher than the expected 8.4%, and the previous value was 7.9%; After the quarter adjustment in March, the monthly rate of CPI recorded 1.2%, a new high since October 2005, in line with expectations; The monthly rate of core CPI in the United States recorded 0.3% in March, a new low since September 2021.

The EIA short-term energy outlook report shows that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2022 is expected to be 2.42 million barrels / day, compared with 3.13 million barrels / day previously. It is estimated that the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil in 2022 will be US $97.96/barrel and US $103.37/barrel respectively, compared with us $101.17/barrel and US $105.22/barrel respectively.

Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei said that the negotiations on resuming the 2015 nuclear agreement were “progressing smoothly”; The Iranian negotiating team has been resisting and will continue to resist “excessive demands” on Iran. The United States has violated its commitments in the Iran nuclear agreement. Now it is in a “dilemma of violating its commitments” and has entered a “dead end”. This is not the case in Iran.

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently conducted a special study on financial support for the smooth transportation of freight logistics, requiring the banking and insurance industry to take the initiative to take accurate and effective measures and go all out to help the freight logistics industry solve difficulties. First, increase financial support; Second, help key groups; Third, improve service efficiency. At the same time, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission called for innovative guarantee methods and strengthened insurance protection.

Mi Feng, spokesman of the National Health Commission, said that at present, the epidemic is still running at a high level, the scope of the epidemic is further expanded, and the prevention and control is in a critical period. We should continue to adhere to the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, not hesitate or waver, strengthen confidence, be more resolute and decisive, and implement various prevention and control measures in every link.

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