Key investment points:
In March, the export was 14.7% year-on-year and the import was - 0.1% year-on-year
In US dollars, exports in March increased by 14.7% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value; Imports fell by 0.1% year-on-year, down 15.6 percentage points, and fell year-on-year for the first time since August 2020; The trade balance was 47.38 billion US dollars. In terms of exports, overseas economies continued to expand, but the speed slowed down, and the marginal growth rate of foreign demand fell; Structurally, the growth rate of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export fell slightly, but maintained a high growth rate, and the export of bulk commodities rebounded under the influence of prices.
In terms of import, due to the continued weak domestic demand and the impact of the epidemic on port transportation, the import growth rate of various commodities generally fell; In terms of volume and price, the import price remained high, and the import volume generally decreased significantly.
The expansion of external demand slowed down, and the export growth continued to decline slightly
(1) from the perspective of major exporting countries and regions, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the EU and ASEAN fell in March, and the growth rate of exports to the United States, Japan and Australia increased, among which the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States rose to 22.4%.
(2) from the perspective of major export commodities, the year-on-year growth rate of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , mechanical and electrical products exports fell slightly in March; The export growth rate of high-tech products decreased significantly; As prices rose further, the export growth of traditional commodities rebounded significantly.
Import growth fell sharply
(1) from the perspective of major importing countries and regions, the year-on-year growth rate of imports from major trading partners fell significantly in March. Among them, the growth rate of imports from Japan, the United States and Australia changed from positive to negative, with a decline of more than 15 percentage points.
(2) the import growth rate of various products in March was lower than that from January to February, among which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , electromechanical products and high-tech products decreased significantly. From the perspective of volume and price, the import prices of large raw materials such as crude oil and iron ore are still at a high level, but the import volume generally decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of import amount.
It is expected that there will be some pressure on import and export in the short term
The impact of the recent epidemic on Logistics continues to appear, and the import and export may bear certain pressure in the short term.
In terms of exports, the marginal slowdown of manufacturing expansion in overseas economies, and the month on month contraction of new export orders of enterprises. It is expected that the growth rate of foreign demand will fall this year, and the pace of export changes will be tracked in combination with enterprise orders and shipping indicators.
In terms of import, at present, China's demand is still weak. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the extent and rhythm of domestic demand repair and the impact of commodity price trend on import volume.
Risk tips
Unexpected changes in the epidemic and international relations will bring unpredictable disturbances to trade.
