Events; China's exports in March (in US dollars) increased by 14.7% year-on-year, with an expected 13.1% and a previous value of 16.3%; Import growth was - 0.1%, expected to be 8.2%, with the previous value of 15.5%; The trade surplus was 47.38 billion US dollars, with an expected 25.6 billion US dollars.
Comments:
1) China's epidemic situation and the uncertainty of overseas geopolitics had a slight negative impact on exports in March. It is expected that the Chinese epidemic will make China's export growth rate drop slightly in April. In the medium and long term, with the gradual recovery of overseas supply, China's export growth tends to slow down. In March, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 14.7% year-on-year, better than the expected value of 13.1%, slightly lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 16.3% from January to February. Exports are still resilient. According to the data by country, the year-on-year growth rate of China's exports to Hong Kong fell by 9.7 percentage points to - 6.2%. The epidemic situation in Shenzhen and Hong Kong has a certain negative impact on exports. Recently, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is relatively serious, and the city's wide-ranging traffic control began on March 28. Therefore, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has little negative impact on the export in March, but it is expected to have a certain negative impact on the export in April. In March, the growth rate of China's exports to Russia fell by 15.6 percentage points to 25.9%. The uncertainty of overseas geopolitics also had a slight negative impact on China's exports. Looking ahead, it is expected that China's epidemic will slightly reduce China's export growth in April. In the medium and long term, with the repair of overseas supply chains, the advantages of China's export supply chain will be weakened. Of course, this process will not be fast, and the decline of China's export growth will be relatively slow.
2) the high base in the same period last year made the year-on-year growth rate of China's import amount fall sharply in March. The fading of the base effect will significantly pick up the year-on-year growth rate of imports in April. In the medium term, the import growth rate is expected to be generally stable. In March, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased by - 0.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected value of 8.2%, far lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 15.5% from January to February. The sharp drop in the year-on-year growth rate of imports in March is related to the high base in the same period last year. On a month on month basis, the import amount in March increased by 6.7% compared with the average from January to February, slightly lower than the median month on month growth rate of import amount from 2018 to 2021 of 8.5%. In 2017, especially before 2013, the month on month growth rate of import amount in March was generally high, with a median of 19.5%, but this may not represent the seasonal characteristics of recent years, because the seasonal characteristics of trade may change significantly over time. The recent epidemic situation in China is relatively severe. It is expected that imports will be restrained to some extent in April, but the fading of the base effect will significantly rebound the year-on-year growth rate of imports in April. In the medium term, the inhibition of the epidemic on China's demand is temporary. In order to achieve this year's GDP target, it is expected that the steady growth will increase in the next few months. After May, China's economy is expected to stabilize and recover, which supports China's import amount. Despite the marginal slowdown in the momentum of global economic growth, it is expected that commodity prices will fluctuate at a high level in the coming months against the background of the reduction of some commodity supplies caused by high overseas inflation and geopolitics. The import of bulk commodities accounts for a large proportion of China's total import, and its high price volatility supports China's import amount. The year-on-year growth rate of import amount in the second quarter is expected to be roughly close to that from January to February this year.
Risk factors: the epidemic situation in China has worsened and the geopolitical uncertainty overseas has increased
