After the Spring Festival this year, the price ratio of pig to grain continued to be lower than 5:1, entering the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline. The national development and Reform Commission has completed the collection and storage of three batches of frozen pork since March, and the fourth batch will be carried out in the near future. Since April, pig prices have stopped falling and stabilized. In the history of resumption, since China first launched the regulation plan to prevent excessive decline in pig prices in June 2009, it has experienced many times of collection and storage, and the effect of collection and storage varies from year to year.
1) the collection and storage of frozen pork was started for the first time in June 2009, and the pig price immediately stopped falling and rebounded, and continued to rise from June to September. 2) From April 13 to June 30, 2010, a total of 5 batches of 170000 tons were collected and stored. The pig price fluctuated at a low level since mid April and continued to rise since June. Since then, this round of pig cycle has also entered the upward channel. 3) The first batch of collection and storage was started in May 2012, but the price did not continue to rise until the implementation of the second batch of collection and storage in August, but the range was limited. Later, the price rose sharply in the peak consumption season. 4) Pig prices stabilized after the start of storage in mid April 2013, and continued to rise to September after the second batch of storage in early May. 5) The collection and storage was started at the end of March 2014. The decline of pig price slowed down and gradually stabilized in April. After the second batch of collection and storage in early May, the pig price rebounded rapidly. 6) In March 2017 and 2018, 10000 tons were collected and stored, which was the smallest in previous years. In the short term, it did not prevent the decline of pig prices. 7) In order to hedge against the impact of African swine fever, the earliest collection and storage in 10 years was launched in 19 years. The collection and storage was divided into three batches in March. The pig price that had bottomed out before collection and storage continued to rise. Since then, the pig price continued to rise against the background of declining production capacity. 7) In July 2021, three batches of collection and storage were carried out, with a total of 53000 tons, but the decline of pig price has not stopped; Pig prices rebounded after the fourth batch of storage in October. In conclusion, the purchase and storage may stop the decline of pig prices in the short term, but the sustainability and boosting effect also depend on the seasonality of pig production capacity and consumption.
