Event: on April 13, 2022, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data of March. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 14.7% year-on-year in a single month, and wind unanimously expected an increase of 13.1%; Imports (in US dollars) fell 0.1% year-on-year in a single month, and wind unanimously expected an increase of 8.2%.
Core view:
The export growth rate continued to decline as scheduled, and the export performance of automobile, industrial products, clothing, luggage and other products remained good, reflecting the resumption of work in Europe and the United States, the accelerated recovery of residents' travel, and the decline of consumer goods. Imports turned negative under the impact of many factors, including the tightening of epidemic control, which affected the unloading and transportation of some ports, the suppression of enterprise production and residents' consumption by the epidemic, weak domestic demand and so on.
The trade surplus increased by 50% in the first quarter, which will bring strong support to GDP. However, looking ahead, under the influence of factors such as the gradual rise of the export base last year and the accelerated shift of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which dragged down the expansion of global total demand, it is expected that the support of exports for the economy will gradually decline. The steady growth policy still needs to be strengthened to stabilize domestic demand and economic growth as soon as possible before foreign demand falls.
The export of industrial products, travel categories, mobile phones and general equipment performed well, the consumer goods and housing economy remained weak, and the export structure was basically consistent with that from January to February. The export of automobiles, industrial products, clothing, luggage and other products performed well, reflecting the resumption of work in Europe and the United States and the accelerated recovery of residents' travel.
Travel related categories: the export growth rate of automobiles, travel bags, shoes and boots in March was 55%, 33% and 27% respectively, maintaining a relatively high level, while the export growth rate of ships was relatively low.
Industrial product chain: the export growth rate of rare earth and aluminum materials in March was 100% and 76% respectively. The growth rate was further higher than that from January to February, while the export growth rate of steel fell.
Electronic equipment and electromechanical products: the export growth rate of general equipment and mobile phones in March rebounded compared with that from January to February, the export growth rate of automatic data processing equipment and audio and video equipment was the same as that from January to February, and the export growth rate of integrated circuits fell sharply. Consumer goods and housing economic chain: basically continued the decline in export growth since the second half of last year.
The import growth rate was significantly lower than expected. The growth rate of energy, industrial products, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other bulk imports generally fell sharply. The monthly growth rate of imports turned negative, and the growth rate of key commodities generally fell. Raw materials, steel, copper, refined oil, natural gas, and fertilizers saw the largest year-on-year decline. In March, the import was affected by several factors. First, the epidemic prevention and control in China became stricter, which affected the unloading and transportation of ports in some regions; Second, the epidemic has suppressed the production and consumption of enterprises, and the weak demand has reduced the willingness of importers to import; Third, the international situation continued to heat up, and the prices of some bulk commodities rose rapidly, which also affected the import willingness of importers. In March, the import PMI fell to 46.9%, the lowest level since May 2020.
In the first quarter, it is expected that the export support to the economy will be the highest in the year
In the first quarter, the trade surplus reached 163.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 50% year-on-year. Referring to the first quarter of 2021, the net export to GDP reached 4.63%. It is expected that the net export in the first quarter can also bring strong support to the economy. However, looking ahead, it is expected that the support of exports for the economy will gradually decline. First, the export base was low before and high after last year. Second, the tightening pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may speed up, or drag down the speed of global economic recovery and aggregate demand expansion. In the first 20 days of March, the export growth rate of South Korea fell rapidly, which means that the growth rate of Global trade has slowed down in March.
Risk tip: the global epidemic has been repeated and the international situation has further escalated.
