In March, the year-on-year growth rate of imports turned slightly negative, and exports remained stable. ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner again. The rise in international commodity prices in the first quarter was an important factor affecting China’s foreign trade.
In March, the year-on-year growth rate of imports turned slightly negative, and the export performance was stable. In March, China’s exports amounted to 175354 billion yuan, an increase of 12.90% year-on-year; Imports reached 145296 billion yuan, down 1.70% year-on-year; The trade surplus was Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) billion yuan. Priced in US dollars, China’s exports in March were US $276080 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.70%; Imports totaled 228.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%; Trade surplus of USD 47.38 billion; In March, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s imports turned negative slightly, but in terms of scale, in terms of RMB, the three-year compound growth rate of import scale in March was 8.9% compared with the same period in 2019. The negative data of this month may be mainly affected by the high base in the same period last year. China’s foreign trade made a good start. In the first quarter, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade was 9.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.70%. Among them, the export was 5.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.40%; Imports reached 4.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.50%.
By country, China’s imports and exports to ASEAN in March totaled US $75.636 billion, accounting for 15.0%. ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner again, of which the export amount increased by 10.4% and the import amount increased by 2.7% year-on-year. The total import and export to the EU amounted to US $68.72 billion, accounting for 13.6%, of which the export amount increased by 21.4% year-on-year and the import amount decreased by 11.6% year-on-year. In March, the total import and export to the United States amounted to US $62.54 billion, accounting for 12.4%, of which the export amount increased by 22.4% year-on-year and the import amount decreased by 11.9% year-on-year. From the perspective of trade balance, China’s main trade surplus in March still came from the United States and the European Union, and the surplus with the United States and Europe increased significantly month on month.
The import amount of energy products increased rapidly year-on-year. Among the main export products in the first quarter, the products with rapid year-on-year growth were mainly cyclical products and industrial semi-finished products. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of automobile and automobile chassis, unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials and integrated circuits were 87.10%, 64.80% and 23.20% respectively; The products with a large decline were mainly grain, audio and video equipment and their parts and household appliances, with a year-on-year decline of 13.40%, 7.60% and 5.30% respectively. In terms of imports, China’s energy imports grew rapidly year-on-year in the first quarter, with the import amount of natural gas, refined oil and crude oil increasing by 68.70%, 46.70% and 39.40% respectively year-on-year; In addition, the import of steel, copper and other cyclical products also maintained rapid growth.
Commodity import and export prices were strong. The rise of international commodity prices in the first quarter was an important factor affecting China’s foreign trade. The import and export prices of fertilizers, steel and oil related products increased significantly. In terms of export, the products with higher price growth are mainly fertilizers, steel and aluminum, and the export volume of the three products has decreased and the price has increased; With the dual boost of cost and demand, the export volume and price of cars and chassis have risen simultaneously. Among several types of products with rapid year-on-year growth of import amount, the import volume and price of refined oil and copper materials increased simultaneously, while the import volume and price of steel and crude oil increased and decreased. In addition, geopolitical factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine also had an impact on grain prices. In the first quarter, China’s grain imports and exports showed volume reduction and price increase. It is worth mentioning that since February, SCFI, CCFI and other maritime price indexes have continued to fall, which may be related to the repeated impact of China’s epidemic on the supply chain.
Since March, China’s economy has been affected by the epidemic in some regions, and the export boom has dropped somewhat; From the perspective of the prospective index – the sub index of manufacturing PMI, the new export order indexes of large, medium and small manufacturing enterprises in March were below the boom and bust line. Looking forward to April, it is expected that the disturbance of the epidemic to the supply chain will continue to exist. Superimposed on the high base of export scale in the second quarter of last year, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in that month will continue to narrow.
Risk warning: accelerated liquidity return; Covid-19 epidemic continues to impact the supply chain.
