Strong export toughness. Export growth again exceeded expectations in March. In the context of the severe impact of the epidemic, 14.7% is a good figure. The export cliff like decline that the market has been worried about since the second half of last year has never occurred. In terms of countries and regions, the mainland's exports to Hong Kong fell 21.87% year-on-year in March. 2. The large-scale outbreak of the epidemic in Hong Kong in March seriously affected its entrepot trade. Due to the obstruction of entrepot trade, some export orders that originally passed through Hong Kong changed the place of shipment to the mainland harbor, so the direct exports of China to other countries and regions increased significantly. From the perspective of commodity structure, exports in March reflected the following phenomena: first, exports of labor-intensive products remained strong. It reflects that there is no decline in residents' apparent consumption in foreign demand. Second, the export of goods related to overseas production side performed well. It reflects that the overseas production end is accelerating the recovery, resulting in the demand for production related equipment or resources. Third, the export of commodities related to the post real estate cycle is relatively weak. This reflects the continuous cooling of the overseas real estate market. With the opening of the overseas interest rate increase cycle, the demand related to the real estate chain will face great downward pressure in the future. Fourth, the epidemic has impacted the production and logistics of some commodities, thus affecting exports. For example, the semiconductor industry with a long supply chain and the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta among the four industrial clusters in China have been seriously impacted by the epidemic. Fifth, the pulling effect of price factors on exports is becoming more and more obvious. Although China's inflation level is low, the price of export commodities has been driven by high inflation abroad.
Imports are dragged down by domestic demand. Imports in March were significantly lower than expected, and the import volume remained negative year-on-year under the condition of high prices. The import data in March has the following characteristics: first, imports to the United States, Europe and Japan fell more, and imports to ASEAN maintained positive growth. On the whole, China's imports are increasingly inclined to ASEAN and its surrounding regions. Second, the overall decline in the import volume of various commodities reflects the very weak domestic demand. Third, the import volume of automobiles, including chassis, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, which has continued to rise since last year. It is also one of the few major imported commodities that maintain positive growth. It reflects that China's automobile demand may be relatively good at present.
Exports are not pessimistic, imports are not optimistic, and the recession surplus will continue for some time. The trade surplus in March was US $47.38 billion, an increase from February and significantly higher than the same period in previous years. At present, the market is more worried about the decline of exports in the future, but we believe that the resilience of exports will be maintained for a long time: first, at present, the global trade demand is still relatively strong and there is no sign of recession. Take Japan and South Korea, two typical exporting countries, for example, their export growth rate has remained high so far, reflecting strong global aggregate demand. Therefore, the strength of China's exports is not only the share effect of crowding out other countries. The growth of Global trade volume is an important factor driving China's exports. Secondly, the important reason for high overseas inflation is insufficient supply. In the process of easing inflation, countries' imports will not decrease significantly, and the corresponding Chinese exports will not decline soon. The market is more worried that the "stagflation" situation of the global economic downturn will impact foreign demand, but we don't think the impact may be great. Taking the "stagflation" period of the United States in the 1970s as an example, we can see that its total import volume did not decline under the influence of "stagflation", but the highest import growth rate in history. Even though real demand may decline, nominal imports are still high under the influence of prices. Therefore, we believe that under similar circumstances this year, China's exports will maintain strong resilience. At present, domestic demand has not reached the bottom, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is strong, and it is difficult for imports to rebound in a short time. Therefore, we believe that the current recession surplus will continue for a long time.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic on both ends of supply and demand has increased.
