Event: in US dollars, China's exports increased by 14.7% year-on-year in March and 16.3% from January to February; China's imports increased by - 0.1% year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5% from January to February; The trade surplus was $47.38 billion, up from $30.584 billion in February and $85.372 billion in January.
Core conclusion: the export growth rate in March continued to fall slightly compared with that from January to February, but remained at about 15%, which is in line with our previous judgment of "resilient decline". Most of China's export growth to major emerging economies fell slightly, while its exports to Brazil and India rose slightly, with exports to Russia falling; Exports to major developed countries have increased and decreased, including to the United States and Japan and to the European Union; In terms of products, the export growth rate of anti epidemic materials, aluminum, general instruments and equipment, mobile phones and auto parts increased; In terms of reasons, the decline in exports is resilient, which is related to the support of external demand and prices. Moreover, the local epidemic has not yet dragged down China's exports, and the export of epidemic prevention materials is still resilient. The import growth rate fell significantly. On the one hand, China's demand was weak, on the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had an impact on the international commodity supply and transportation, resulting in a significant decline in China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , chemical fertilizer and other imports. In the follow-up, the external environment of China's exports is relatively stable in the short term, and we maintain the judgment of resilient decline in exports. However, we should also pay attention to the impact of repeated local epidemics and economic growth in Europe and the United States on China's exports.
Summary of trade data in March: exports continued to decline tenaciously, most of the export growth to major emerging economies fell slightly, the export growth of Russia fell, and the export growth to major developed countries increased and decreased. The growth rate of mechanical and electrical products decreased slightly, and the export growth rate of anti epidemic materials, aluminum, general equipment, mobile phones and auto parts increased. In terms of reasons, external demand and prices still support exports, and the local epidemic has not significantly dragged down exports; The decline of import growth rate may be due to weak domestic demand and the obstruction of bulk commodity transportation caused by geographical conflict.
1. In terms of exports, in US dollars, exports increased by 14.7% year-on-year in March, 16.3% year-on-year from January to February, and the year-on-year compound growth rate in December last year was 19.4%. The export growth rate in March continued to decline compared with the previous trend, but the decline rate remained strong and resilient.
1) the global boom has declined slightly. South Korea's exports, which are more consistent with the global economic boom, are still strong. On the whole, there is still support for foreign demand, and the external environment for China's exports remains stable. In March, the global manufacturing PMI of JPMorgan Chase fell slightly compared with February, which was 53.0% in March, down 0.6 percentage points compared with February, but it is still in the expansion range; South Korea's export growth, which is more consistent with the global economic boom, is still high, with a growth rate of 18.2% in March and 15.5% and 20.6% year-on-year respectively from January to February. Therefore, on the whole, although the global economy fell slightly, it is still in a high range, and the external environment for China's exports is still relatively stable.
2) by country: most of China's export growth to major emerging economies fell slightly, while exports to Brazil and India rose slightly, among which exports to Russia fell; Export growth to major developed economies has increased and decreased, including Japan to the United States and the European Union. Compared with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to March and from January to February, among emerging market economies, the growth rate of exports to ASEAN, South Korea and Hong Kong decreased; The growth rate of exports to Brazil and India increased, and the growth rate of exports to Russia fell significantly (25.9% year-on-year in March and 41.5% year-on-year in January and February); Among developed economies, the growth rate of exports to the United States and Japan increased, while the growth rate of exports to the EU decreased. From the perspective of external demand, in the above economies, except Brazil and Japan, the manufacturing PMI of most other countries / regions fell. Among them, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone, the United States and Russia fell by 1.7 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points and 4.5 percentage points respectively in March compared with February, and the manufacturing PMI of Brazil increased by 2.7 percentage points compared with February.
3) by product: the export growth rate of anti epidemic materials, aluminum, general equipment, mobile phones and auto parts increased. Comparing the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commodities from January to march with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to February, among them, the varieties with increased export growth rate include anti epidemic materials (Textiles), aluminum, general instruments and equipment, mobile phones and auto parts, which increased slightly by 3.19, 5.91, 4.42, 4.16 and 0.69 percentage points to 14.97%, 64.7%, 17.94%, 5.33% and 5.75% respectively compared with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to February. The varieties whose export growth rate dropped include fertilizers, grain, automobiles and automobile chassis, integrated circuits, toys and refined oil. In addition, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products continued to decline to 11.92% compared with January February and December last year, which is in line with our previous judgment that the decline of external demand this year may drag down the export of mechanical and electrical products.
4) reasons for the resilient decline in exports: Although the export growth rate continued to decline slightly in March, the decline rate was slow, mainly due to: 1) the manufacturing PMI in Europe, America and other developed countries remained at a high level of 55% - 60%, the manufacturing PMI in Japan, Brazil and other countries rebounded, and the consumption of durable goods in the United States increased month on month, which supported the export of relevant products in China; 2) The rebound of China's epidemic situation has not seriously affected the export of China's anti epidemic materials and products. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the export of textile yarn, fabrics and their products was 14.97%, maintaining an increase; 3) Prices still support some products. We split the unit price pull rate and quantity pull rate of the export amount of key varieties. In addition to automobiles and household appliances, the price contribution of refined oil, mobile phones, steel and other exports is obvious, which forms a strong support for exports.
2. In terms of import, in US dollars, the import in March was - 0.1% year-on-year, the cumulative import from January to February was 15.5% year-on-year, and the two-year compound growth rate in December last year was 13.4%. In addition to the high base factor, we believe that the decline in import growth in March is related to the current repeated epidemic in many places in China, resulting in weak domestic demand. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to sharp fluctuations in international commodity supply, resulting in a sharp decline in China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other imports. In March, China's manufacturing PMI new order index fell 1.9 percentage points to 48.8%, falling below the boom and bust line; The PMI import index fell 1.7 percentage points to 46.9%, reflecting weak demand in March. In terms of the year-on-year growth rate of the current month, the growth rate of the import amount of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , grain, soybean, refined oil, fertilizer, plastic, aluminum, steel, copper, pulp and rubber decreased significantly, of which fertilizer decreased by 90.27 percentage points to 18.48%, soybean and refined oil decreased by 12.45 and 19.67 percentage points to 1.42% and 20.65% respectively, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , pulp and steel increased negatively year-on-year. The growth rate of crude oil import increased by 8.63 percentage points to 36.01%, and the growth rate of crude oil import volume also increased by 5.22 percentage points.
We believe that the reasons for the weakening of imports are as follows: 1) domestic demand weakens, PMI new orders fall below the boom and bust line, PMI import index further falls, and the repeated epidemic in many places in China in March also has a certain impact on demand; 2) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia have a great impact on the supply of international bulk commodities. Russia and Ukraine are important grain producing countries in the world. Russia is also an important fertilizer producing country in the world. The outbreak of the conflict has blocked the transportation of relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and fertilizer, affecting imports.
The export growth rate in March showed a resilient decline compared with that before. At present, the external environment is relatively stable, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of repeated local epidemics and economic growth in Europe and the United States on China's exports.
Although China's export growth continued to decline in March, the decline was slow and the resilience remained, which was in line with the judgment of our previous report. In the follow-up, the external situation of China's exports is relatively stable. The repeated local epidemic may disturb China's import and export in April, but it is expected that the import and export will resume after the subsequent epidemic is controlled. At present, the economic recovery of Europe, America and other countries is still continuing, and the relevant demand remains strong, forming a certain support for China's exports.
1. Repeated outbreaks may disturb China's import and export in April. Since March, the epidemic has occurred repeatedly in Shanghai, Changchun and other places. The two places are important automobile and parts production cities in China, and Shanghai port is an important port in China. On the one hand, the urban traffic blockade caused by the epidemic will make the production of relevant industrial chains encounter difficulties, resulting in the rise of production costs and the decline of output; On the other hand, port cargo transportation may be hindered to some extent, which will drag down China's import and export. At the end of March, the container throughput of the three ports of the Yangtze River decreased by 15.8% year-on-year. Therefore, China's import and export may face a certain degree of decline in April. However, it is expected that the import and export situation will recover after the epidemic is controlled.
2. At present, developed countries such as Europe and the United States have a good economic recovery, which forms a short-term support for China's exports. At present, the economies of Europe, America and other countries are still recovering steadily, and the driving force remains strong. In terms of data, the PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States in March was 58.8%, which continued to increase compared with 57.3% in February, and the PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the euro zone was 56.5%, which has remained in the expansion range for many consecutive months. According to the U.S. employment data in March, the current U.S. labor market is very strong, new employment remains high, and wages maintain rapid year-on-year growth. The total private savings in the United States are still much higher than the pre epidemic level, thus forming a strong support for the demand side. Although the Fed may start to increase interest rates and shrink the table strongly due to inflation, it is expected that the impact on the US economy in the short term will be limited. In Europe, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is still relatively loose to support the economic development of the eurozone, and it is not expected to tighten significantly in the short term. In this case, it is expected that the foreign demand of European and American countries will remain stable in the short term, thus forming a certain support for China's exports.
Risk tips
The evolution of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the decline of external demand exceeded expectations.
