Key points of the report:
① the root cause of the decline in the beginning of the year: the market does not doubt the determination of the policy to stabilize growth, but the policy has not been implemented for a long time, and the pessimistic economic expectation still needs to be repaired. ② The market simply follows the bottom line stability maintenance scheme (real estate release), which is reflected in the recent general rise of the real estate chain. ③ Omicron communication, the first in Tianjin, may celebrate the new year on the spot again this year. Q1 economy may be under pressure, and further policy easing is expected. ④ The market is still firmly optimistic, and the previous breaking clues are still applicable: steady growth signal - Social Finance recovery - economic stabilization. The tracking data support: credit has made a good start, fiscal expenditure has accelerated, infrastructure has risen, and real estate sales have started to improve. ⑤ Steady growth signal - policy implementation - there is a time lag in the expected repair. For example, after the 2018 / 11 private enterprise symposium, the market expectation did not reverse until the beginning of the next year. The bull market consensus is not the actual economic stabilization, but the expectation of stabilization. ⑥ Pre Festival configuration: capital construction focuses on "agricultural safety, power grid and gas pipeline network"; Seeking stability and seizing the beach of core assets; The real estate chain rebounded and paid attention to transaction factors in the later stage. ⑦ The main line of the year: small and medium-sized enterprises start a prairie fire. Abundant liquidity encounters growth scarcity, pull-out valuation is more important than rising performance, and private placement and two financing are expected to expand significantly.
Text summary
The root cause of A-share decline in the beginning of the year: we saw the demand for steady growth, but we did not see the implementation of real gold and silver policies, and the pessimistic expectation of the economy was not repaired. ① The market does not doubt the determination of policy steady growth. After all, steady growth is not only an economic problem, but also a political problem. ② What the market doubts is the landing time and effect. The central bank is positive. It will cut the reserve requirement twice in the second half of 2021 in exchange for an interest rate cut at the end of the year. However, the strength of the financial end remains to be tracked. The financial deposit did not decline significantly until November 2021, and the implied financial expenditure began to be positive, but there is a lack of further data confirmation. ③ The market simply deduces according to the bottom line stability maintenance scheme: the more you can't see the hope of economic stabilization, the more likely it is to relax the real estate policy, which is reflected in the general rise of the real estate chain in recent five trading days, including real estate, building materials, household appliances and banks. ④ The Omicron epidemic spread in China for the first time, the economy was under pressure again in the first quarter, and further easing policies are expected to accelerate the implementation.
The bull market needs consensus: the expectation of economic stabilization is the benchmark premise for the optimistic attitude of Soochow's annual strategy "prairie fire". ① Previously, the breaking clue is still applicable: steady growth signal - Social Finance recovery - economic stabilization, and the market is still firmly optimistic. Tracking data support: credit has made a good start, fiscal expenditure has accelerated, infrastructure has risen, and real estate sales have started to improve. ② The signal of steady growth is sent, the policy is implemented and the expected repair is expected. There is a time lag, but it will not be absent. Focusing on economic construction, it appeared in the economic work conferences in 2014 and 2018, and the policy was clear, positive and loose the next year. The 2018 / 11 private enterprise Symposium released a clear signal of stability, but the Shanghai composite index still fell to a low of 2440 one month after the meeting. The market did not begin to reverse the pessimistic expectations until the RRR reduction in early 2019 and the 3.2 trillion day credit in January. ③ What we want to emphasize is that the consensus needed by the bull market is not the actual economic stabilization, but the expectation of stabilization.
Pre Festival configuration: capital construction focuses on "agricultural safety, power grid and gas pipeline network"; Seeking stability and seizing the beach of core assets; The real estate chain rebounded and paid attention to transaction factors in the later stage. ① Infrastructure construction: agricultural safety, gas pipeline network and power grid. The agricultural short board covers farmland water conservancy, seed industry revitalization and agricultural machinery and equipment. The flexibility release of power operation business performance and the necessity of power grid construction are the main line of certainty throughout the year. The gas pipeline involves the investigation and transformation of urban underground pipe network and the guarantee of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation by the national development and Reform Commission. Second, the uncertainty of macro growth remains, and the combined valuation is reduced. The core assets represented by Baijiu, medicine and the Internet are still seeking stability and optimization. In 2022, liquidity is scarce and growth is scarce. ③ Real estate is a "blood transfusion", not a "rescue", is to protect people's livelihood, not steady growth. It limits the upper limit of real estate chain valuation repair, and more attention should be paid to transaction factors in the later stage of rebound.
The main line of the year: small and medium-sized enterprises start a prairie fire. ① The change of A-share industrial structure is amazing. The all a (equal rights) index continued to reach a five-year high on the first day of the year, with a gap of only 16% compared with the historical peak in 2015 (June 12, 2015). ② Under the downward pressure of the economy, the main line of the whole year must be looking forward to leading new growth in the future. The new economy (Electronics / computers / power equipment / medicine, etc.) of CSI 800 and CSI 1000 account for a higher proportion, and the valuation is below 50% in the past five years. In 2022, abundant liquidity encountered growth scarcity, and the valuation is more important than the rising performance. ③ From the perspective of style, the largest marginal incremental capital of A-Shares every year determines the market style. Foreign investment in 2017-2019, public offering in 2020-2021, and private placement and two financial expansion brought by high net worth customers in 2022 may dominate the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises. See the annual report prairie fire for details.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
