Strategic view
On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index weakened in early trading, and rebounded after 3140 noon. Three major index rocket launches, long arms, brokers, Baijiu, catering, tourism and home appliances. The Shanghai Composite Index and the gem index recovered 3200 points and 2500 points respectively. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.46%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.05%, the gem index rose 2.50%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.95%, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.68% and the China composite 500 rose 1.61%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 3809, higher than the average value of 1802 last week and 558 in the previous trading day. The number of limit trading houses was 111, higher than the average value of 78 last week and 62 on the previous trading day. The number of decliners in the two cities was 871, lower than the average value of 2868 last week and 4160 in the previous trading day. The number of drop limits was 27, higher than the average value of 25 last week and lower than 73 in the previous trading day. The net inflow of northbound funds was 9.137 billion yuan, the average value of last week was 2.186 billion yuan, and the net outflow of the previous trading day was 5.761 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 916479 billion yuan, with an average value of 938679 billion yuan last week and 963879 billion yuan the previous trading day. The large-scale rise of A-Shares is basically in line with our judgment on the market. It is expected to form an important low point in the first half of the week. After the logic of easing expectations was shaken, there was a concentrated release of risk on Monday. Since the previous common policy bottom of the market has appeared and is waiting for the bottom of the market, we believe that after the completion of this round of decline, there is a high probability that the bottom of the market can be formed, but it does not mean that A-Shares can continue to improve, We still need to wait for a clearer signal of fundamental repair.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: long and short funds cut positions and left the market, and the index was strong and volatile
(1) on April 12, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 215400, 97800 and 341500 respectively, and the day on month changes were – 3.44%, – 3.76% and – 0.03%;
(2) on April 12, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was -3.97 points, 0.14 points and 3.49 points, which changed by -3.9 points, – 1.68 points and 26.39 points compared with the previous trading day.
Operation suggestion: if2204 is mainly low absorption, and the support level is 4150 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: market sentiment picks up and the short-term index may stabilize
(1) on April 12, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.75, 0.87, 0.92 and 0.71 respectively, of which the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options rebounded slightly;
(2) on April 12, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 20.2% and 20.6% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option decreased slightly.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: sell 300etf and 4000 options in April; Robust strategy: none; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 risk factors for the continuous spread of short-term panic
