Core view
In the first quarter of 2022, due to the disturbance of external factors such as the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the re outbreak of covid-19 pneumonia, A-Shares were attacked by “spring cold”, the index fluctuated downward, the performance of most stocks was poor, and the market confidence was tested.
On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market issues, and “maintaining the stable operation of the capital market” became the top priority; On March 21, the executive meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress again made efforts to stabilize economic growth and maintain the steady and healthy development of the capital market, and market confidence gradually recovered and strengthened. At the same time, the negotiation has become the “main channel” to solve the Russian Ukrainian problem, the external disturbance factors have been gradually weakened, and the “market bottom” and “policy bottom” have appeared. In addition, PE and Pb valuation data show that the index and industry valuation are basically in a reasonable range.
Looking forward to the second quarter, with the continuous development of policies and measures to stabilize growth and stabilize the market and the positive effect of many positive factors, A-Shares ushered in “April day” 1, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward. The Shanghai composite index is expected to operate in the range of 31503500 points. In terms of strategic allocation, investors should maintain confidence in the market and actively allocate individual stocks based on the three main lines of undervaluation, high score red and blue chips and new and old infrastructure and companies with deterministic performance growth under the expectation of steady growth.
Key recommendations: Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ( Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) . SH), Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) ( Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) . SH), SAIC ( Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . SH), Shanshan ( Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) . SH), potassium sulfite International ( Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) . SZ), Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) ( Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) . SH), Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ( Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . SZ), Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) ( Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) . SH).
Risk tips:
The war between Russia and Ukraine further escalated; The effect of steady growth is less than expected; The epidemic continues to spread; New international disturbances arise.
