Last week, the RMB exchange rate as a whole operated in the range of 6.35-6.39, and the overall shock posted value; The US dollar index rose in shock, with an operating range of 98.5-100.5.
The short-term upward momentum of the US dollar index is still mainly due to the expected guidance of Fed officials for the subsequent interest rate increase of 50bp and table contraction. However, from the performance of the US dollar index after the release of the minutes of the meeting, if there is no substantive news, the short-term expected guidance has been partially reflected in the trend of the index, and the upward space of the US dollar index is expected to be narrower. Superimposed on the gradual narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States and the fact that geopolitics has not been effectively alleviated, the dollar index is easy to rise but difficult to fall to a certain extent. If there is no obvious further progress in the above information, the dollar index may enter shock consolidation and wait for further information guidance. The recent trend of RMB has gradually followed the US dollar index, and the US dollar index still forms value pressure on RMB in the short term. The RMB is easy to shadow but difficult to rise, and the short-term pressure above is around 6.43. Inflation data of major countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom will be released this week. We need to focus on important economic data such as U.S. inflation and its retail sales. If inflation is high and the economy is stable, it will further consolidate the market's confidence in raising interest rates by 50bp in May or June and shrinking the table ahead of schedule, so as to boost the dollar index. In addition, ECB president Lagarde will hold a press conference on Thursday. The market is also more concerned about the discussion of ECB monetary policy. If the speech is hawkish, it should be noted that it may bring some weak pressure to the US dollar index.
To sum up, it is expected that the operating range of US dollar against RMB this week will be 6.355-6.430.
Risk tips: the spread of the global epidemic, the policy process of commodity markets in major countries, and the progress of global economic recovery
