Core view
Consumption is still suppressed, and the boom of the construction industry continues to improve:
This week, Guoxin high-frequency macro diffusion index a turned negative again, index B fell slightly, and the overall index value returned to below the historical average again. From the perspective of sub items, the operating rate of steel tires and PTA production all fell this week, indicating that the current consumption is still strongly restrained; However, the operating rate of coking enterprises, the output of rebar and the comprehensive index of building materials increased, indicating that the production boom of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) industry continued to pick up.
As of April 8, 2022, Guoxin high-frequency macro diffusion index a was -0.1, index B recorded 111.4 and Index C recorded – 0.9% (- 0.3pct.). Among the seven sub items of the index, the operating rate of coking enterprises, the output of rebar and the comprehensive index of building materials increased compared with last week; The operating rate of all steel tires, PTA output, the transaction area of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities and the price of cement decreased compared with last week.
Weekly price high frequency tracking:
(1) food and non food prices rose this week. In April 2022, food and non food prices may be higher than seasonality month on month. It is estimated that in April, CPI food chain ratio was about 1.5%, CPI non food chain ratio was about 0.3%, and CPI overall chain ratio was about 0.5%. In April this year, CPI increased significantly to 2.3% year-on-year.
(2) in the first, middle and last ten days of March, the price of means of production in China’s circulation field continued to rise, which brought a large positive month ending in April. It is expected that PPI in April will maintain a positive growth month on month. Driven by the high base, PPI in April may continue to decline to 7.6% year-on-year.
Risk tip: policy adjustment lags behind and economic growth declines.
