Over the past two years, the important contribution of exports to China's macro economy has been obvious to all. In the third year of the epidemic, there have been many changes in the domestic and foreign relative situation. The potential influence of the high export boom on China's macro economy has further increased. The two important transmission paths "export economy real estate" and "surplus exchange rate monetary policy foreign capital" have a direct impact on economic policy and stock and bond market.
At present, the number of global goods exports may have been slowing down, and the growth rate of export amount is still high under high inflation. However, the impact of the recent epidemic may lead to China's loss of a certain export share and a phased decline in export growth. Looking back, the trend of China's export boom is affected by many factors, such as the trend of the US economy, the epidemic situation outside China and the process of geopolitical conflict. The benchmark expectation tends to fall, but the realistic path may be tortuous and complex.
If China's exports decline in the future, the probability of further strengthening the real estate policy under the demand of stable growth will increase, and the industrial chain outlook and broad credit expectation will also increase, which is conducive to value stocks and slightly negative for long-term interest rates; In addition, the decline of export prosperity will weaken the sustainability of high trade surplus. With the gradual narrowing of the policy interest margin between China and the United States, once the RMB exchange rate depreciates, it will directly limit the space for strong monetary policy such as interest rate reduction, and the power of foreign capital allocation will also be weakened. Industries with high proportion of foreign capital holdings / large export impact will face certain pressure, and the downward space of interest rate curve will also be limited.
Risk warning: export boom exceeds expectations; The effect of epidemic prevention and control in China is better than expected; New changes have taken place in the overseas epidemic situation
