After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, almost all agricultural activities in Ukraine were in danger, and the most urgent issue at present is the planting of new crops.
Ukraine's nine war affected States - Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson and mykolaiv, and some affected States - Zhytomyr, Poltava and dnipropetrovskoblasts
At present, the market's intention to reduce the yield of spring crops in Ukraine is relatively consistent, but the actual impact of planting and the corresponding reduction are not clear, and the market's expectation of reduction is not consistent; Based on the article "food balance in wartime in Ukraine" by the Ukrainian agricultural analysis agency, this paper roughly calculates the actual sowing situation and yield reduction degree of crops in spring 2022 in Ukraine from three unique perspectives: the judgment of the safety level of planting areas, crop distribution and the feedback of farmers' own sowing willingness. I hope to try to open up a cloud of doubt on the global grain and oil supply.
