Macro categories:
U.S. inflation data in March fell higher than expected. After the data were released, U.S. stocks rose slightly, and the Fed swap showed that the market cut its expectation of raising interest rates this year. Previously, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March significantly increased the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp at the meeting in May, and the table reduction process was far more than expected. It was planned to reduce the scale of assets held by the Federal Reserve by up to $95 billion per month, while the highest scale of the previous table reduction was $50 billion per month. The last round of shrinkage statement is obviously bad for equity assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with equity assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
China's financial data improved slightly in March, the growth rate of social finance stock stabilized and rebounded in March, and the medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises also improved month on month. However, at present, the steady growth policy is still in the transmission stage. Under the impact of the epidemic, China's official manufacturing, non manufacturing and comprehensive PMI indexes fell in March. At present, the severe epidemic situation in Shanghai will also drag down China's subsequent exports. At the meso level, in March, the land acquisition of national real estate enterprises fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and heavy trucks still fell sharply year-on-year. At the micro level, as of the week of April 7, the thread output, factory warehouse and social warehouse all changed from decline to increase. The social warehouse ended the previous four consecutive weeks of decline. Our latest research shows that the national downstream construction improved only slightly year-on-year and month on month last week, and the peak season is not prosperous. In the short term, China's "weak reality" situation continues.
In terms of commodity segments, under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, it is still necessary to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought by the conclusion of the nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran. Combined with the information that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still in twists and turns, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities still maintain a high and volatile situation; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to solve due to the superposition of high inflation in the United States, and under the background that 10Y US bonds once exceeded 2.8%, the global precious metal ETF position continues to rise, close to the historical high. We still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
