Key investment points
I. in March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, an increase of 1273.8 billion yuan over the same period last year. (1) RMB loans increased significantly in the month, and there is still room for credit growth. In March, 3232.8 billion yuan was added, an increase of 2324.4 billion yuan over the previous month and 481.7 billion yuan over the same period last year. The year-on-year and month on month growth rates were 17.5% and 256%, respectively, indicating that the willingness of the banking system to provide credit is sufficient. At the same time, there is sufficient space for the scale of acceptable projects. (2) The issuance of government bonds has become an important supplement to the growth of social finance. This year, the issuance of local government special bonds has been accelerated, and local governments already have sufficient funds for traditional infrastructure, new infrastructure and other projects. (3) Direct financing still needs to be strengthened. On the one hand, the credit bond market is suffering from the impact of credit bonds in the real estate industry, the overall risk appetite needs to be improved, and the main body of urban investment is also facing an uncertain evolution path, so the market remains relatively cautious; On the other hand, after three years of rising, the stock market has begun to shake the downward trend since the beginning of this year. The market sentiment and capital caution have been strengthened, and it is not friendly to equity financing.
2. Medium and long-term corporate credit increased by 1344.8 billion yuan in March, an increase of 839.6 billion yuan over the previous month. (1) The growth of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has resumed, the pace of credit supply has accelerated, the medium and long-term loans of residents are relatively weak, and the housing sales are dragged down. (2) The short-term loans of enterprises have increased significantly, the operating cash flow has been supplemented, and the operating willingness of enterprises is expected to be improved. (3) There is still room for direct financing. The direct financing channels are not smooth. On the one hand, the credit bond market is bearing the impact of credit bonds in the real estate industry, and the overall risk appetite needs to be improved, while the main body of urban investment is also facing an uncertain evolution path, and the market remains relatively cautious; On the other hand, after three years of rising, the stock market has begun to shake the downward trend since the beginning of this year. The market sentiment and capital caution have been strengthened, and it is not friendly to equity financing. (4) The year-on-year scissors gap in money supply expanded, indicating that credit boosted credit expansion. The main change of M1 comes from enterprise demand deposits, including enterprise operation receipts and enterprise financing funds. The rebound of M1 growth indicates that the working capital of enterprises is increasing, which is mutually confirmed by the rapid growth of new credit scale this month. The rapid growth of M2 has also verified that the credit granting activities of the financial system have better implemented the requirements of moderately advancing and accelerating the implementation of the policy requirements from the perspective of broad money. After the credit is put in place, the growth of the real economy will also be guaranteed through a series of government led projects.
III. investment pull has become a realistic choice for steady growth, pay attention to monetary policy and issue supporting policies. Next, we should pay attention to the following three aspects: (1) in terms of total amount, the sustainability of credit indicators' support for entity project investment. It is mainly reflected in the match between the growth rate of enterprise loans and the growth rate of fixed asset investment. (2) Structurally, it pays attention to the progress of projects in many areas approved by local governments, such as traditional infrastructure (water conservancy and highway), major projects of the 14th five year plan and urban renewal. (3) Pay attention to the fine-tuning of real estate regulation and control, and change from rapid fire to slow stew. At present, the real estate industry is in the dilemma of high leverage, high inventory and low sales. If the policy constraints are properly adjusted and given a certain transformation time and space, or some high-quality enterprises will complete the transformation, so as to lead the real estate industry into the direction of acceptable policies.
Strategy suggestion
Recently, all kinds of high-level information convey a basic fact that China's economy has encountered more downward pressure than expected, and the model of stable growth of government led investment has become a realistic choice. From the perspective of policy linkage, monetary policy should also introduce supporting measures to increase the possibility of directional interest rate reduction or small downward adjustment of LPR interest rate. For the interest rate market, the central bank's operation will probably become a signal that the interest rate has bottomed out, and turn upward after the fundamentals confirm the bottom.
