Main points:
Consumer industry: the leverage ratio of residents remains high, covid-19 epidemic repeats, the unemployment rate rebounds again after a sharp rise and fall, and the quality of consumer loan assets still fluctuates in the short term, which may affect the power of institutions to issue consumer loans;
Product issuance: with the tightening of regulatory policies, the issuance scale of consumer loan ABS decreased significantly in 2021. In 2022, the consumer finance company may make efforts, and the issuance scale is expected to increase;
Basic assets: in 2021, the proportion of credit card ABS issuance decreased, the overall dispersion of consumer loan ABS asset pool decreased, the term of loan contract and excess interest margin increased, and the proportion of licensed consumer finance companies increased, and the future trend may continue;
Asset performance: 1) overdue / default: the duration of consumer loan ABS products issued in 2021 is still short, the risk is not fully exposed, and the short-term asset performance is similar to that in 2020; 2) Early repayment: under the background of higher interest rate of basic asset loan and overall reduction of reserve requirement, the early repayment rate of existing products increased slightly and maintained a high level; In addition, the differences in subdivided assets due to the quality of customer base will continue to exist in the future;
Outlook: 1) the threshold of Internet small loans will be raised, the competitive advantage of consumer finance license will be highlighted, the diversification of ABS issuers of consumer loans will be improved, and the competition pattern of consumer loan ABS will be intensified in 2022; 2) The measures for the administration of credit investigation business promote the supervision of information flow and promote the risk management of consumer loans. At the same time, the supervision comprehensively standardizes the management of credit cards and reasonably guides the decline of credit card interest rates. The weighted average interest rate of ABS asset pool of credit cards is expected to change. Although the quality of basic assets of consumer loans fluctuates in the short term, it may be improved in the long run.
