The strictest pan real estate regulation in 2020 the downturn of real estate in 2021 began with the strictest real estate regulation policy in history, and the liquidation of the real estate industry was intense and direct. Real estate regulation is carried out from three aspects: controlling the supply side, controlling the demand side and controlling the financing side.
Why the regulation of the rapid urbanization process of real estate makes the real estate occupy a lot of financial resources and the financial risks accumulate rapidly. Excessive consumption of residents occupied by real estate has blocked the start of internal circulation. National economic growth needs to be rebalanced.
The real estate industry is still in liquidation, the demand side is still in a downward state, the supply side risk is in the process of exposure, and the support of the financing side is mainly focused on the demand at this stage, and the liquidation of the real estate industry has not been completed.
The short-term real estate policy must be changed. The risks of the real estate industry are already exposed. In order to stabilize the economy, the strict regulation of real estate needs to be changed. (1) Economic stability requires the real estate industry to maintain positive growth; (2) Improving the efficiency of investment and stabilizing real estate can directly benefit economic growth; (3) The decrease of local government fund income has brought financial difficulties; (4) The rise of commercial housing inventory brings risks, and the reduction of real estate construction brings employment problems.
The policy began to shift and will gradually accelerate in the future. The real estate policy began to shift in the second half of 2021. In September 2021, the third quarter regular meeting of the central bank's monetary Committee proposed to "maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers". In January 2022, the five-year LPR interest rate decreased, which is a monetary policy indicator directly beneficial to the real estate market. At this stage, urban implementation is the mainstream. In February, the down payment ratio of home buyers in Shandong, Chongqing and other places fell to 20%. In March, Zhengzhou relaxed the purchase and loan restrictions, and then Harbin, Qinhuangdao, Dongguan, Lanzhou and other places began to relax the purchase restrictions of commercial housing.
Short term real estate policy changes - mainly on the demand side. The short-term regulation means are mainly concentrated on the demand side. The central bank and policy levels at all levels gradually reduce the obstacles to residents' house purchase, from relaxing the scope of application of provident fund, reducing the proportion of down payment, relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, etc.
The future of real estate - a national pillar industry with stable development real estate is a national pillar industry: (1) from the perspective of regulation and control policies, the ability of real estate enterprises to obtain funds is the greatest advantage, and the trend of real estate will be state-owned enterprises and public utilities in the future; (2) From the perspective of regulation means, real estate tax is used as a long-term regulation means and affordable housing is used as a supplement; (3) From the perspective of regulation objectives, it is necessary to keep the real estate price relatively stable and the land market price stable.
The rebound of the real estate sector at this stage is more about the change of strict policies and the phased improvement brought by monetary easing. Chunjiang water heating duck prophet, the signal of real estate improvement will continue to appear, the industry transformation will also come, and the industry that has experienced wind and rain will usher in a new stage of development.
