Event:
On April 11, 2022, the central bank released China's financial data for March:
RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, up from 1.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year; The stock of social financing scale was 325.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year; The scale of social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, up from 1.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year; In March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, the former value was 9.2%, M1 money supply was 4.7% year-on-year, the former value was 4.7%, M0 money supply was 9.9% year-on-year, the former value was 5.8%.
Core view:
In the first quarter of 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance stock was 10.5% in January, 10.2% in February and 10.6% in March respectively, showing a roughly upward momentum of shock. The situation of social finance in March was similar to that in January, with strong aggregate and weak structure, while that in February was both weak. Therefore, on the whole, the substantive recovery of social finance has not yet appeared. Before the structural improvement, especially the significant improvement of medium and long-term loans, The sustainability of the recovery of social finance will remain to be seen.
Looking back, (1) first of all, the base effect of social finance in the second quarter is a positive factor for the sustained recovery of social finance in the short term, and there is no inflection point in the national spread of this round of Omicron epidemic. At present, the severity of this round is second only to 2020. In this situation, the demand for steady growth is very strong, and there is an economic growth target of 5.5% this year, so the tendency of policy steady growth will be very strong. Because the stabilization of social finance is the prelude to economic stabilization, and there is still great pressure on substantial credit relief at present, credit relief is the main aspect of the current policy. After the observation period in March, the market basically confirmed that the loose tone of monetary policy remained unchanged. However, considering that the current market is not too short of money, the role of broad money in stabilizing growth and credit is not great, and there are restrictions on the interest rate difference between China and the United States, so the central bank will be very cautious in reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. This is the reason why the monetary policy was implicit in March, However, there is no doubt that broad currency will continue to escort broad credit and steady growth. In addition to monetary policy, we believe that fiscal policy will play a more important role in broadening credit and stabilizing growth in the future. The increase in special debt and the increase in fiscal expenditure in the second quarter will continue to support social finance. (2) However, there are constraints on the sustainability of the recovery of Social Finance: the determined downward cycle of "real estate without speculation" in the real estate industry, the fermentation of the epidemic and the influence of the complex political and economic situation outside China make it difficult for enterprises to significantly improve their financing willingness in the short term, making it difficult to broaden their credit.
Therefore, in conclusion, we believe that the trend of credit recovery under the policy is certain, but the process may be slower and bumpier than that in previous years. We expect it to be a shock upward in the future. We believe that in the short term, credit easing will have little impact on the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds. At present, the political and economic situation outside China is more complex, and there are still many uncertain factors. We can also observe from the reaction of the bond market after the release of the social finance data. Under the impact of the social finance data in January, February and March respectively exceeding the expectation, less than the expectation and exceeding the expectation, the 10-year Treasury bond yield on that day was gradually insensitive to the response range of social finance exceeding the expectation.
The following is the specific data analysis:
I. the credit of the resident sector is weak, the credit structure of the enterprise sector is poor, the impulse characteristics of bills are still obvious, but the medium and long-term loans have marginal improvement
In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of about 400 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of March, the balance of RMB loans was 201.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. The growth rate was slower than that at the end of last month, 1.2% lower than that in the same period of last year. Short term loans and bill financing increased by 765.9 billion, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 235.6 billion year-on-year. On the whole, there is still a decline in medium and long-term loans, the proportion of medium and long-term loans is still low, and the credit demand is still weak.
The credit of the residential sector increased by 753.9 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 394 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, short-term loans increased by 384.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 139.4 billion yuan, mainly because the spread of the epidemic has suppressed residents' consumption willingness; Medium and long-term loans increased by 373.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion yuan. The medium and long-term loans and short-term loans of the residential sector are weak. The weak medium and long-term loans echo the poor real estate sales data and land transaction area, indicating that the marginal easing policy of real estate has not been effective in space and time, and the lack of residents' willingness to buy houses is the main factor. We emphasize that in addition to the restrictions of real estate policies, there are also residents' concerns about the real estate industry The overall economic situation is expected to be pessimistic. At present, Shanghai is the main spreading point of the epidemic in China, and the outbreak in many other regions is likely to continue to ferment, which will form continuous pressure on consumption and real estate transactions and sales. The marginal easing policy of real estate may continue to be introduced, but the resident credit data may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
Loans to the enterprise sector increased by 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 880 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, short-term loans increased by 808.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 434.1 billion yuan, bill financing increased by 318.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 471.2 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 1344.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8 billion yuan. Short term loans and bills were the main additions, mainly because banks had the task of deposit impulse in March, and some large banks had strong willingness to lend under the guidance of the window of wide credit demands, so the increment of short-term loans and bills was obvious to meet some short-term liquidity needs of enterprises. The poor credit structure of enterprises shows that the actual financing willingness of enterprises is still insufficient, because the real estate industry is still at the bottom, superimposed with the impact of epidemic disturbance and overseas geographical conflict, the general attitude of enterprises towards the economic outlook is not optimistic. However, the role of infrastructure underpinning the economy is slightly apparent. Therefore, although the medium and long-term loans of enterprises are still weak, the margin has improved. However, the sustainability of this improvement and when there will be a significant improvement remain to be seen.
II. The increment of social finance exceeded expectations. Government bonds, credit and non-standard are the main contributions, but the demand for physical financing is still weak. The existing increment is mainly the effect of the steady growth policy
In March, the increment of social financing scale was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan over the same period last year. At the end of March, the stock of social financing scale was 325.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and the growth rate increased by 0.4% over the previous month. In terms of increment, it mainly comes from the support of government bonds, credit and non-standard items, which reflects the effectiveness of the steady growth policy. However, from the perspective of various sub items, the credit is still dominated by the increase of short-term loans, and the actual credit demand of both residents and enterprises is still insufficient.
In March, the net financing of government bonds was 705.2 billion yuan, an increase of 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Direct financing increased by 485.2 billion yuan in March, an increase of 26.2 billion yuan year-on-year, of which the net financing of corporate bonds was 389.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7 billion yuan year-on-year, and equity financing was 95.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5 billion yuan year-on-year. The increase of government bonds is mainly due to the advance of the issuance progress of government special bonds. The performance of corporate bonds generally reflects the deficiency of current financing demand on the one hand, and the decrease of urban investment bonds on the other hand. In March, non-standard financing increased by 13.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 426.2 billion yuan, of which undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 28.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 258.2 billion yuan, trust loans decreased by 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 153.2 billion yuan, and entrusted loans increased by 10.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8 billion yuan.
Undiscounted acceptance bills and trust loans in March are important supporting items of social finance. The increase of undiscounted acceptance bills may be driven by the increase of short-term liquidity pressure of enterprises under the disturbance of the epidemic. The increase of trust loans is mainly driven by the joint effect of the obvious easing of stock pressure drop under the background of the end of the new asset management regulations and the increase of infrastructure investment demand.
III. M1 is relatively sluggish, M2 growth rate is rising, and financial investment is significantly accelerated, but the vitality of the real economy is still insufficient
At the end of March, M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value. The balance of M2 was 249.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5% over the end of last month, an increase of 0.3% over the same period of last year, and the scissors difference between M2 and M1 increased by 0.5% over the previous month. M0 grew by 9.9% year-on-year. Household deposits increased by 2.70 trillion yuan, an increase of 762.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 2.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 922.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Deposits in non bank financial institutions decreased by 632 billion yuan, an increase of 304 billion yuan year-on-year. Fiscal deposits decreased by 842.5 billion yuan, an increase of 357.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The sluggish growth rate of M1 is mainly reflected in the lack of vitality of the real economy under the fermentation of the epidemic, including the reduction of residents' consumption and enterprise activities, while the increase of M2 growth is mainly due to the acceleration of credit by banks in March, but not all the funds flow into the market. Therefore, the deposits of residents and enterprise departments increased accordingly, and the fiscal expenditure increased significantly in March, and the fiscal deposits decreased significantly. The significant increase in the pressure on the bank to redeem securities may be related to the decline in the financial market.
