In March, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 14.7% year-on-year, compared with 16.3% from January to February; Imports (in US dollars) increased by - 0.1% year-on-year and 15.5% from January to February; The trade balance was US $47.38 billion, compared with us $115.95 billion from January to February.
Exports were weaker than the same period last year, but higher than seasonality, but downward pressure increased. In dollar terms, China's export growth in March increased by 8.5 percentage points over February, weaker than the same period in history, but slightly higher than seasonality. In March, JPMorgan Chase global manufacturing index was 53%. The global manufacturing industry maintained a moderate recovery trend, which supported the export toughness, but the recovery momentum has dropped, and it is expected that the driving effect on exports will be marginal weakened in the future. In addition, with the further recovery of overseas production, China's export share is under pressure to slow down.
The driving factor of export growth has further shifted from "increment" to "price rise". In 2021, 79% of China's exports were driven by the increase of "volume", and 21% contributed to the increase of "price". Since Q4 last year, the rise in commodity prices and the shortage of chips have led to the rising weight of the "price rise" factor in the export contribution. In January and February this year, the contribution of China's export price factors continued to rise, reaching 47.5% and 238.8% respectively. At the end of February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and the import prices of bulk commodities and other raw materials rose further, which is expected to further raise the production costs and product sales prices of Chinese export enterprises. In March, the impact of price factors on exports may continue to strengthen.
Import growth has turned negative, and the characteristics of declining surplus are becoming more and more obvious. The year-on-year growth rate of imports in March decreased by 10.5 percentage points to 10.4% compared with February. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has an impact on China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and bulk commodity imports, and the surge in crude oil prices will also increase the cost of crude oil and other products imported by China. The superimposed epidemic restricts domestic demand, resulting in a decline in import demand, and China's trade performance gradually presents the characteristics of recession surplus.
The growth rate of electromechanical and high-tech products fell, and the performance of countries was differentiated. In March, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) maintained a high growth rate, and the growth rate of electromechanical products and high-tech products continued to decline. By country, the growth rate of exports to the United States was 16.7%, up from 13.7%; The growth rate of exports to the EU was 23.3%, the former value was 24.0%; The export growth rate to ASEAN was 12.3%, up from 13.3%; The growth rate of exports to Japan was 8.3%, up from 7.4%.
Export growth is expected to fall quarter by quarter. From the trade data of the first quarter, exports still maintain a high growth rate, but looking back, we think the export growth rate will probably fall quarter by quarter. 1) There is great pressure on the decline of consumer goods exports. On the one hand, the demand for overseas "housing" economy has decreased, and the subsequent US replenishment will no longer stimulate the export of consumer goods. On the other hand, geopolitical risks are high, global economic and trade recovery is facing great uncertainty, and overseas consumer confidence has been hit. 2) The global supply chain problem has not been alleviated. China's export container index CCFI remained at an all-time high, the PMI supplier delivery index of the US manufacturing industry rose again in February, and the overseas supply chain problem has not been continuously improved. 3) China's epidemic has a certain drag on exports. In the short term, the epidemic has led to phased problems such as poor logistics and transportation and blocked production and operation of enterprises. If it cannot be effectively controlled in the short term, it may continue to impact the export supply chain.
Risk warning: the global epidemic worsened beyond expectations; The global economy went down faster than expected; China's policy changes exceeded expectations.
