Key points:
Events
In March, the scale of social financing was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year; RMB loans increased by 313 million yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year; In March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year and M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year.
Credit exceeded expectations, but structural problems were prominent
With the release of the loose monetary policy signal at the end of last year, the scale of social finance and new RMB loans performed well at the beginning of this year. In March, social finance and RMB loans rebounded sharply to 4.65 trillion yuan and 3.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan and 0.48 trillion yuan year-on-year. Despite the ups and downs of social finance data in the first three months, in the first quarter as a whole, the total amount of social finance and new RMB loans increased by 1.72 trillion yuan and 0.43 trillion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year. However, structural problems remain prominent, such as the weak real productive financing demand of the real economy, the financing capacity of private enterprises is lower than that of state-owned enterprises, and the continuation of the weakening trend of the real estate industry. Although the government is determined to stabilize the economy and the fiscal and monetary policy continues to increase, from the credit level, the transmission effect of the policy needs to be further strengthened. First, we should strive to dredge the blocking points in the transmission chain from wide currency to wide credit. Second, we should strive to solve the deep-seated problems of credit, including how to stabilize market expectations, guide more credit to small, medium and micro enterprises, and avoid credit collapse in the real estate market.
Marginal improvement of off balance sheet financing environment
The margin of new entrusted loans, new trust loans and new undiscounted acceptance bills improved. The year-on-year growth rates in March reached 14.8 billion yuan, - 21.7 billion yuan and 258.2 billion yuan respectively, while the year-on-year growth of last month was 2.6 billion yuan, - 65.1 billion yuan and - 486.7 billion yuan. With the end of the transition period of the new regulations on asset management, it is expected that the support of shadow banks for social finance will be marginally strengthened in the future. Although the off balance sheet financing market environment has improved, the off balance sheet financing capacity is still very limited. In March, the three off balance sheet financing scale totaled 13.3 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.29% of the social financing scale, which is also less than 1% compared with the credit scale. It has little impact on the problem of difficult and expensive financing of private enterprises.
Weak demand for corporate bond financing
The financing scale of government bonds was RMB 435.2 billion, which was significantly higher than that of government bonds in the financing cycle last month, accounting for RMB 435.2 billion, accounting for 3.3% of the financing scale of infrastructure bonds. The scale of corporate bond financing was 389.4 billion yuan, a slight increase of 51.7 billion yuan over the previous month and only 8.3 billion yuan over the same period last year, a sharp drop from the 202.1 billion level last month. The weakening of corporate bond financing data also reflects the current situation of sluggish demand in the real economy.
Risk tips
Policies exceed expectations; The epidemic exceeded expectations.
