Core view
In January and March, the issuance of new shares returned to normal, and the registration sector made new gains and warmed up month on month
Affected by the repeated epidemic and the turbulent situation in Russia and Ukraine, the IPO market broke in batches in March. However, with the return of IPO to normal, the fund-raising amount has rebounded to the average level after the new regulations in 2021. The full income of class a accounts on the science and innovation board and the gem in March can still reach 11 / 610000 yuan respectively, which is significantly higher than that in February.
In the first quarter, the shock and downturn of the A-share market since 2022 led to poor performance on the first day of listing in the new share market. However, under the effect that the fund-raising amount and winning rate remain at a high level, the new yield of 300 million class a accounts can still reach the level of nearly 1%.
2. The new strategy is changed to "preferred individual stocks", and the new revenue is still considerable in 2022
With the breaking of the new rules on inquiry gradually becoming normalized on the first day after the implementation, offline institutional investors began to selectively participate in the breaking of the new shares in order to ensure the winning rate. The number of participating accounts and the shortlist rate of the registration system sector in the breaking of the new shares were significantly lower than those in the non breaking of the new shares, indicating that investors were more cautious in the participation and quotation of the new shares with breaking risk, and the strategy of breaking the new shares was gradually changing from "playing every new" to "selecting individual shares". Among them, the winning rate and yield of new share projects with low issuance price, low issuance PE and low issuance market value are relatively better.
We assume that: (1) in 2022, the financing scale of science and innovation board and gem will reach 153.6-288 billion yuan and 120235.2 billion yuan respectively; (2) Under neutral circumstances, the success rate of a / C accounts on the science and innovation board is 0.057% / 0.031%, and the success rate of a / C accounts on the gem is 0.043% / 0.021%; (3) In 2022, the average increase of new shares on the science and innovation board and gem on the first day was 10% - 30% and 40% - 60% respectively. According to the above assumptions, we expect that under the neutral situation, the new rate of return of 300 million class a accounts on the science and innovation board and the gem in 2022 will be 1.4% and 2.7% respectively, and the new rate of return of 300 million class C accounts will be 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.
3. Changguang Huaxin and Laite optoelectronics are worthy of key tracking this month
4. Risk warning: risk of policy change
Changguang Huaxin is the leader of domestic high-power semiconductor laser chips. It has built IDM whole process process platform and 3-inch and 6-inch mass production lines. It is one of the few enterprises with mass production capacity of high-power laser chips in the world. At the same time, the company has vertically extended the whole semiconductor laser industry chain and horizontally expanded into VCSEL and optical communication chips; In the future, the high-power semiconductor laser chip business will fully benefit from the penetration improvement of the industry and domestic substitution. VCSEL and optical communication chips have a broad market space, which is expected to open a new round of growth space for the company.
Wright optoelectronics is the leader of OLED organic materials in China, breaking the monopoly of foreign patents, forming an integrated production capacity of "intermediates - pre sublimation materials - terminal materials", and successfully realized the mass production of redprime materials and hole transport layer materials in 2018. Among them, the key technical indicators of redprime materials can be benchmarked with international manufacturers, which has been widely recognized by downstream panel manufacturers such as BOE and Huaxing optoelectronics. At present, the company is raising funds for production, which can seize the opportunity of capacity release of downstream OLED panel manufacturers. With the mass production of new products such as greenprime materials, greenhost materials and redhost materials and the certification of the company's products by Tianma Group, Visionox Technology Inc(002387) and other potential customers, the company is expected to enter a new round of performance harvest period.
