Core content:
Social financing continued to rise. The overall number of social financing rose in March, mainly due to the rise in loans and the large issuance of corporate bonds and government bonds. The decline of shadow banks also had a positive impact on the total amount of social financing. On the whole, the rise of social financing is the continuation of the management's steady growth measures. Chinese financial institutions have completed the year-on-year growth of credit under the condition of weak downstream demand. The steady growth measures have gradually taken effect, which also reflects the management's determination and effective regulation of the overall economy.
Off balance sheet credit stopped falling and rose. First, shadow banking continued to rise, and entrusted loans, trust loans and bank acceptance bills rebounded year-on-year, which means that the credit of real estate related enterprises has gradually improved. Secondly, the government bonds are advanced and the issuance speed is accelerated. In the first quarter, government bond financing was 1.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 921.5 billion yuan year-on-year. Finally, on balance sheet loans rose, residential loans rebounded slightly, and corporate loans increased. Generally speaking, the demand of manufacturing industry is still relatively weak, the overall financial environment continues to remain loose, and the continuous upward credit is a positive signal of economic recovery, which may continue until the third quarter.
The outbreak of short-term corporate loans, the demand of residents is still weak, the growth rate of new credit rebounded in March 2022, corporate credit rose, resident credit was weak, and the medium and short-term corporate loans rose sharply. Covid-19 epidemic has affected some real estate demand and residents' consumption demand, and residents' credit is still low growth. The loan structure of enterprises is not ideal, but the rapid upward short-term loans show that the funds of enterprises are relatively tight, and it is still difficult for sector enterprises to obtain long-term loans.
The matching degree between social finance and M2 still shows that the easing needs to continue the slow upward movement of M2. The rebound of M2 is the result of the rise of residents' deposits. At the same time, the purchase of bonds by financial institutions promoted the slight upward movement of M2. M1 remained stable in March, and the capital situation of enterprises did not change significantly in March. In the first quarter, M1 and M2 continued to rise, money supply accelerated and the degree of financial activation accelerated. The adjustment caliber of monetary operation of the people's Bank of China has been clear. Wide credit and wide monetary policy are the choice of policy, and the effect of loose monetary combination will gradually appear. The proportion of social finance and M2 continues to fall, indicating that finance is still tense relative to the real economy at this stage and needs further easing.
Credit easing continued, monetary policy was under observation, and the central bank's determination and driving force for steady growth were still sufficient. It focused on promoting the issuance of credit, and operated well in the first quarter. The recovery of credit will bring about a slow upward trend of the economy. Although the central bank did not cut reserve requirements and interest rates in March, credit easing continued. In view of the fact that the Federal Reserve is already in the process of monetary contraction, the effect of the central bank's interest rate cut may not be good at the time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and contraction table. It is expected that the central bank will be cautious in cutting interest rates in the first half of the year. At the same time, inflation expectations have risen. The central bank's monetary policy may be suppressed by inflation to a certain extent in the second half of the year, and the central bank's monetary operation will face a more complex environment. To sum up, credit easing is still the focus of the policy, and the possibility of monetary easing in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half of the year
