See in this issue
1. The infrastructure, real estate and financial sectors in the "steady growth" chain performed better, track stocks continued to callback, and the stable style and low price earnings ratio index led the rise. 2. Northbound funds continued their preference for high boom sectors and arranged the relevant allocation of "stable growth" policies. The number and share of new funds established in March were significantly warmer. 3. The repeated geopolitics and the overweight of European and American sanctions against Russia will still support the high operation of crude oil prices in the short term; Crude oil and natural gas prices will continue to run at a high level, driving the upward demand for coal. The mood of replenishing coking coal stocks is high. It is expected that there will be some support for short-term coal prices.
Study and judgment of the general trend: add weight to the steady growth policy, and grasp certainty and high winning rate in chaos
At the policy level, on April 6, the national Standing Committee issued a voice on the current economy and policies, saying that the complexity of China's external environment "increased uncertainty and some exceeded expectations", and proposed to make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy ("credit support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and small and micro enterprises to meet the reasonable consumption and housing needs of residents "; We will strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. On April 7, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, which once again pointed out that the current economic operation is facing greater uncertainty and challenges, and policies should be strengthened in a timely manner. Therefore, the policy of steady growth in the second quarter is relatively certain, and the transmission from "competing currency" to "competing credit" is expected to accelerate, so as to effectively boost the economy.
At the macroeconomic level, the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, the Federal Reserve will accelerate the interest rate hike and table contraction, and the global commodity market fluctuates sharply. Since April, the large-scale rebound of the epidemic in China has exceeded expectations, and the new downward pressure on the economy has further increased. According to the PMI of Caixin China's service industry in March disclosed this week, it recorded 42.0, falling to the contraction range, 8.2 percentage points lower than that in February, the lowest since March 2020, indicating that the current production and operation activities contracted and the supply and demand were under pressure. The social finance data for March will be released next Wednesday, but when the current epidemic rebounded beyond expectations, had a huge impact on logistics and transportation since April, and the real estate has not stabilized and warmed up, the social finance data may be lower than previously expected. In the second quarter, we faced the dual pressure of high base and economic downturn. Taking into account the economic growth target of 5.5% this year, the increasing urgency of monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy (real estate relaxation policy and industrial rescue policy affected by the financial crisis) increased.
At the capital level, the accumulated net outflow of funds going north last week was about 6.6 billion yuan, and the net outflow on Wednesday was about 5.3 billion yuan. In terms of transaction structure, the net outflow of funds from northbound was concentrated in Shenzhen market, and the bank significantly increased its position in the undervalued sector. The electrical equipment with large decline increased its position against the trend and flowed out of the high-level sectors of electronics and biomedicine. The funds continued the previous preference for the high boom sector. Institutional funds continued to pick up. In March, the number and share of new funds increased significantly, from 63 funds in February to 175, and the issuance share increased by nearly three times. Nearly half of them were bond funds, confirming the current reduction of market risk appetite. As of April 9, 11 new stocks and hybrid funds were issued in April, raising about 3 billion.
At present, the internal and external disturbance factors of A-Shares are higher than expected, and the pressure on short-term economic operation is increased. We suggest to grasp the main line of more certainty under the background of current uncertainty:
1) the main line of steady growth: this week, the national standing committee pointed out that the current economic operation is facing greater uncertainty and challenges. It stressed that the policy should be strengthened in a timely manner, and the steady growth policy should be strengthened again. The transmission from "broad money" to "broad credit" is expected to accelerate. It focuses on the financial, infrastructure and real estate chains that directly accept the current loose monetary and fiscal policies, with prominent fundamentals The valuation has been adjusted back to the subject matter within a reasonable range.
2) the main line of inflation with high winning rate: the escalation of geographical conflicts, the sanctions imposed by European and American countries on Russia, the superposition of high global inflation and the repeated epidemic in China may lead to the continuous high price of bulk commodities, which may rise further in the process of subsequent demand repair, and focus on the downstream demand supported sectors.
3) main consumption line: the unexpected rebound of the epidemic has had a great impact on logistics and transportation in the short term. In March, the national vehicle freight flow index decreased by 9.2% and Shanghai decreased by 23.4%. The opportunities of the more resilient mandatory consumption sector deserve attention. In addition, the bird flu epidemic in the United States continues to deteriorate, which will probably affect the supply of breeding chickens in China and push up the price of chicken in the short term. The price rise tide of superimposed food sector has opened and is expected to be repaired.
Risk tips: the implementation of the steady growth policy exceeded expectations, the risk of epidemic rebound, data lag and limited data representation
