Today, the market adjusted significantly, and nearly 90% of A-Shares fell. In terms of broad-based index, the gem index, Shanghai Composite Index and wandequan a fell by 4.20%, 2.61% and 3.16% respectively. Kechuang 50 hit a new low since the opening of the board. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, only agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery rose by 2.08%, led by power equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics, automobile and computer, down 5.43%, 4.98%, 4.90%, 4.66% and 4.63% respectively. A total of 4159 stocks in the two cities fell, accounting for 87%, and 73 fell by the limit. The total turnover of the two cities exceeded 950 billion, and the net sales of northbound funds were 5.761 billion.
At present, the market is facing difficulties at home and abroad. 1) Despite the steady progress of external negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, European and American sanctions against Russia continue to increase. On April 6, the US Senate agreed to cancel normal trade relations between the country and Russia; On April 7, the EU decided to implement a new round of sanctions against Russia. Russia is an important exporter of crude oil and other primary commodities, and the supply of primary commodities is still limited. In the medium term, the price probability will remain high, which may suppress downstream demand. 2) The US Federal Reserve has accelerated its tightening, and the 10-year US bonds have risen sharply recently. According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March, affected by the events in Russia and Ukraine, only 25bp interest rate will be increased in March, 50bp interest rate will be increased in May, and there may be another 50bp interest rate increase after that. In addition, the Fed's table reduction ceiling is US $95 billion per month, which was first implemented after the May meeting, and the rate increase is much higher than the table reduction scale in 20172019. 3) The frequency of outbreaks in China has increased, some enterprises in some areas have temporarily reduced production and stopped production, the normal production and operation of upstream and downstream related enterprises have also been affected, economic activities have slowed down, and both supply and demand are weak. The PMI in March was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The 10-year China US interest rate spread is close to upside down. 4) Capital continued to decline. Since December 2021, the market has been falling for a long time, the money loss effect is fermenting, and the market sentiment is depressed. Last week, there was a net outflow of 6.6 billion yuan from the north, and the transaction volume of the two financial institutions accounted for 7% of the transaction volume of the whole a.
The steady growth policy has been gradually increased and the policy bottom has been consolidated. 1) On April 7, the premier presided over a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, pointed out that policies should be promoted and strengthened in time, and studied new plans. 2) The monetary policy minutes of the central bank in the first quarter proposed to "strengthen countercyclical regulation" and "strengthen implementation". The financial data in March exceeded expectations, but the structure was weak. At present, it belongs to the early stage of wide credit with strong willingness to invest and weak capital demand: in March, M2 exceeded expectations by 9.7% (9.1%), and the social financing increment was 4.65 trillion (3.6 trillion). In the same period last year, it was 3.38 trillion, and the social financing pulse index rose from 27.45% to 28.37%. In terms of incremental structure, credit, off balance sheet items and government bonds contributed 38%, 33% and 31% respectively. In addition, the credit increment mainly depends on enterprise short-term loans and bills: Residents' short-term loans and medium and long-term loans decreased by 139.4 billion and 250.4 billion respectively year-on-year, enterprise short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased by 434.1 billion and 14.8 billion respectively year-on-year, and bills increased by 471.2 billion year-on-year.
The value of A-share allocation is highlighted, and the victory will eventually belong to optimists. Historically, ERP has certain indicative significance for the excess return rate of CSI 300 in the next year. As of April 11, the ERP calculated by the 10-year CDB bond was 6.71%, which was at a high level since 2015, close to the end of 2018 and the end of February 2020, and the configuration value was prominent. At present, China's economy is in the transitional stage of reverse cycle regulation in stage 1 and recovery in stage 2 of the Pringle cycle. Stable first and then successful, high dividend strategy as the shield, small cap growth, specializing in special new attacks.
Industry allocation suggestions: focus on strategic security and grasp the opportunities of steady growth, strategic resources and independent control. a. Policy driven steady growth: 1) real estate development; 2) Building construction; 3) Consumption of building materials. b. Strategic resources: 1) coal; 2) Oil and gas, oil service and oil transportation; 3) Gold; 4) Industrial metals; 5) Energy metals; 6) Grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . c. Self controlled long-term track: 1) wind power & Photovoltaic & nuclear power; 2) Semiconductor equipment and materials; 3) Military industry.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the deterioration of China US relations exceeded expectations, the effect of steady growth was low, the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations, the tightening of global liquidity exceeded expectations, and historical statistics do not represent the future.
