Research conclusion
Event: on April 8, 2022, Li Keqiang hosted a symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs; On April 6, Li Keqiang chaired the executive meeting of the State Council; On April 7, Hu Chunhua hosted a symposium on the employment situation; On April 2, Hu Chunhua presided over a symposium on foreign trade situation.
The recent intensive symposiums related to the economic situation reflect the government's concern about some macro exogenous shocks to a certain extent. The meeting was cautious in judging the current environment. The Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs pointed out that "some unexpected factors exceeded expectations", and the national standing committee also made similar statements: "the complexity and uncertainty of China's external environment has increased, some have exceeded expectations" and "the difficulties of market players have increased significantly". 3. In April, while there was "triple pressure" on the macro economy, the fermentation of the epidemic beyond expectations will lead to the decline of economic data. In March, the PMI index has dropped below the boom and bust line. It is worth noting that the scope and duration of the epidemic is second only to the beginning of 2020. Since March, only two provinces have no local new growth. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused significant fluctuations in global energy and food prices, The superposition of various factors makes it more difficult to stabilize growth.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the core objectives of the policy are underpinning and relief. Stabilizing the market players greatly affected by the epidemic is one of the main lines of recent meetings, which has released a strong signal of policy support. The market players concerned are mainly small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, catering and retail and other extremely poor industries. The relief policies include accelerating the progress of value-added tax retention and refund, delaying the payment of endowment insurance for some industries, etc. the policy intention and means are similar to those at the beginning of the epidemic (2020), That is to help the affected enterprises tide over the difficulties so that the economy can achieve spontaneous repair after the epidemic subsides. The enterprises participating in the Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs are China Logistics Group, China agricultural means of production group and Qingdao innovation Qizhi technology company, which respectively correspond to ensuring smooth logistics, grain production and scientific and technological innovation. The first two are very important for material supply under epidemic prevention and control.
We will continue to emphasize stabilizing employment. From the employment data from January to February, the unemployment rate of young people has increased significantly compared with previous years. The unemployment rate of the population survey aged 16-24 is 15.03%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the end of last year. Superimposed on the impact of the epidemic on the economy since March, the subsequent unemployment rate is still at risk of rising. Therefore, the policy is expected to continue to cover the bottom of employment by ensuring the main body of the market. At the Symposium on the employment situation, Hu Chunhua said that "affected by the epidemic and other factors, the situation facing employment is complex and severe", "all kinds of enterprises are the main body of stabilizing employment. While pursuing their own development, they should actively fulfill their social responsibilities and strive to stabilize and expand jobs". The national standing committee made it clear that keeping the economy operating within a reasonable range is mainly to achieve basic stability in employment and prices, and we should strive to ensure employment by stabilizing market players.
The international situation is complicated, and efforts to stabilize foreign trade have been intensified. The Symposium on foreign trade situation pointed out that "the external environment of foreign trade is becoming more severe and complex, development faces many risks and challenges, and greater efforts are needed to achieve the goal of stabilizing foreign trade". The improvement of export growth has helped the economic recovery in the past two years, but the factors of economic growth slowdown and geographical conflict in Europe and the United States have added uncertainty to foreign trade. In March, the PMI new export order index decreased by 1.8 percentage points compared with the previous month. Recently, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Guangzhou have introduced stable foreign trade policies, including reducing the burden on import and export enterprises and increasing the support of combined policies such as finance and taxation. wait.
Structural monetary policy continued to be introduced, and unexpected factors beyond expectations increased the possibility of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction. The expression of monetary policy continued the tone of the government work report - "strengthening the implementation of prudent monetary policy", and did not disclose the signal of interest rate and standard reduction. However, under the impact of triple pressure and unexpected factors, the probability of interest rate and standard reduction in April increased. There are two increments in structural instruments: one is the establishment of two new refinancing instruments: scientific and technological innovation and inclusive pension. The other is to study and take measures to support consumption and effective investment, including improving the level of financial services for new citizens.
Risk tips
The impact of the outbreak on the national economy exceeded expectations;
Geopolitical conflicts continue to evolve, which may exacerbate the risk of imported inflation
