Macro dynamic comments
China: low expectation of monetary easing. 1) Money Liquidity: the central bank’s net return of reverse repo this week is 580 billion yuan, and the MLF of 150 billion yuan will expire next week; At the end of March, China’s foreign exchange reserves were 3188 billion US dollars, down 25.8 billion US dollars. The national standing committee pointed out that various monetary policy tools such as refinancing should be used flexibly in a timely manner to give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure. 2) Macro policy: solicit opinions from the financial stability law to solve the weaknesses in the institutional mechanisms and rules and regulations exposed in the current round of financial risk disposal; According to the opinions of the six departments, the new production capacity of oil refining, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus and other industries shall be strictly controlled during the 14th five year plan. 3) Real estate: performance announcement of real estate enterprises in 2021: high price land carry forward plus new house price limit makes the gross profit margin decline; After the rebound of real estate stocks, important shareholders dominated by industrial capital intensively reduced their holdings. 4) Risk: Sun Chunlan: adhere to the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, and do not hesitate or waver.
Overseas: monetary tightening exceeded expectations. 1) Monetary policy: according to the minutes of the Fed meeting, the interest rate may be increased by 50 basis points once or more in the future, and the scale of assets held is planned to be reduced by up to $95 billion per month; Brad of the Federal Reserve believes that it will raise interest rates by another 300 basis points; The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting show that the end of the asset purchase plan in the summer can pave the way for the interest rate hike in the third quarter. 2) Geopolitical conflict: the US Senate passed a bill banning the import of oil and gas from Russia; The US Senate reached an agreement to cancel the normal trade relations between the country and Russia; The EU reached a consensus on the proposal of the fifth round of sanctions against Russia, including measures such as banning the import of coal from Russia. 3) Energy policy: the UK energy security strategy shows that it will revitalize offshore oil and gas production in the North Sea and make 95% of UK electricity “low carbon”.
