The total amount, increment and growth rate of social finance were much higher than expected. In March, the scale of social financing increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. The total amount, increment and growth rate were much higher than expected. By item, the most important increment comes from RMB loans, government bonds and off balance sheet financing.
From the credit data, the total credit of the enterprise sector continues to pick up, and the credit expansion of the resident sector is obviously dragged down by real estate sales, but the worst stage of real estate has passed. From January to March, the total amount of enterprise loans was stronger than that in previous years, indicating that it is expected to improve gradually. Empirically, the probability of subsequent credit structure improvement is high. When the loan of the residential sector contracted by 336.9 billion yuan in February, it expanded again this month, adding 753.9 billion yuan, but the weak real estate demand still dragged down the year-on-year increase of 394 billion yuan. We expect that the worst stage of real estate has passed: first, policies have been implemented frequently in the near future, and more cities may introduce policies to support the reasonable demand for commercial housing in the future; Second, the current round of epidemic rebound may further promote the demand for improved housing.
The proportion of real estate related loans is either one of the macro-control indicators, or the main reason for amplifying the recent social finance fluctuations. One of the Enlightenment of the interest rate marketization in Japan and Germany is that if the proportion of real estate related loans cannot be controlled, there is a high probability of banking crisis in the process of interest rate marketization. The credit fluctuation from January to March may indicate that we have incorporated the proportion of real estate related loans into macro-control, and the real estate development loans may have rebounded in March.
How to look forward to the landing order of monetary policy in the next stage? Structure priority, total window not closed
1) structural monetary policy is about to be implemented: according to the spirit of the national standing committee meeting on April 6, in addition to increasing the amount of small re loans for agricultural support, the establishment of two special re loans for scientific and technological innovation and inclusive pension also further defines the importance of structural monetary policy tools at present. From the situation since the epidemic, the structural monetary policy tool has become an important starting point for the people's Bank of China to maintain the steady growth of credit.
2) the interest rate reduction can be expected, but the time window may still need to wait: from the meeting of the Financial Committee on March 16 to the resumption of the game version on April 11, it shows that the end of the policy has appeared and the real estate policy is expected to be more positive. The fact that the mortgage interest rate is higher than the general loan interest rate means that the current commercial banks' continuous reduction of their mortgage interest rate is in line with their commercial logic and the policy direction of supporting the reasonable demand for commercial housing, and then the policy interest rate is expected to be reduced. Of course, overseas uncertainty may also disturb the rhythm of China's policy.
3) RRR reduction does not solve the current problems: the current liquidity environment of the banking system is abundant, and the significance of RRR reduction is limited. From the credit balance sheet, the bottleneck of credit expansion is small and medium-sized banks, and the credit growth rate of small and medium-sized banks has not improved after the recent RRR reduction. In March, social finance exceeded expectations and further confirmed the end of the policy. 3.16 the meeting of the finance committee established the policy base; If China's epidemic cooling and steady growth policies are expected to work simultaneously, the economic bottom will also take shape; After the global liquidity shock caused by the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, A-Shares will hit the bottom of the market. Although it is still on the left side of the market, social finance exceeded expectations in March, further confirming the policy bottom signal.
Risk tip: changes in economic fundamentals outside China exceeded expectations; Monetary policy exceeded expectations
