Summary of this week and configuration suggestions for next week
Hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve are rising, and the prospect of the situation in Russia and Ukraine is deteriorating. The previously announced US ism non manufacturing PMI in March recorded 58.3, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous value, indicating that the US service industry maintained a recovery. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 166000 in the week to April 2, better than the market expectation and the previous value of 202000, indicating that the situation of the job market continued to improve. According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, the Fed believes that it may be appropriate to reduce the asset ceiling of $95 billion per month, and supports the phased adjustment in three months or moderately longer to reach the table reduction ceiling, which may be started as early as may. And many Fed officials said it may be necessary to raise interest rates by 50 basis points once or more. According to CME fed, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May is 80.5%. The hawkish signal released by the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting strengthened the market's expectation of raising interest rates and boosted the US dollar. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.85 on Friday, rising for seven days in a row, up 1.29% this week. The deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine also boosted the demand for us dollar to avoid risks. Most non-U.S. currencies fell, with the euro falling 0.04% to 1.0877 against the US dollar and 1.54% this week. The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting released earlier showed that many members called for immediate further measures to normalize monetary policy. However, the Western sanctions against Russia and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to aggravate the European Energy Commission, and the euro was under pressure. In terms of commodities, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell this week. As countries have released strategic crude oil reserves, the US oil contract in May fell 1.38% to US $97.90/barrel. High inflation and risk aversion caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine supported the international gold price, but hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve limited the rise of gold price, and Comex gold futures rose 1.39% this week.
This week, the Central Bank of China made a net return of 580 billion yuan in the open market. In terms of macro policies, the executive meeting of the State Council held on April 6 pointed out that at present, China's economic operation is generally maintained within a reasonable range, but the complexity and uncertainty of China's external environment have increased, and some have exceeded expectations. The recovery of the world economy has slowed down, the global grain, energy and other bulk commodity markets have fluctuated significantly, China has recently experienced multiple epidemics, the difficulties of market players have increased significantly, the smooth economic cycle has encountered some constraints, and the new downward pressure has further increased. We should not only strengthen confidence, but also pay high attention to and be alert to new problems and challenges. We should make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy. We should strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. In terms of capital market, the main market indexes callback again this week. Among the three indexes, the gem index has the largest downward range, with a weekly decline of more than 3%, and the Shanghai index callback is also close to 1%. In the short term, it shows a shock in the range of 32003300. In the three-phase index, the trend of China Securities 500 was the weakest, with a weekly decline of more than 2%. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stepped back on the annual line and rebounded.