The NPC will release various information. The United States and Europe increased sanctions against Russia. The minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve revealed the details of the "table reduction" for the first time, and the table reduction will be started as soon as may.
On April 6 (this Wednesday), the national standing committee meeting (hereinafter referred to as the "meeting") was held to make important statements on stabilizing growth, maintaining the main body and timely using monetary policy tools. In terms of predicting the current economic situation, the meeting pointed out that at present, "the complexity and uncertainty of China's external environment have exceeded expectations", and geographical disputes such as the rebound of China's epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have an impact on the goal of "stable growth" during the year.
In terms of monetary policy, the meeting proposed to "deploy and timely use monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy" and "give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure". In terms of structural tools, the introduction of structural monetary policy tools such as "supporting agriculture" and "supporting small" refinancing is expected to be accelerated; From the operational situation, refinancing can accurately realize the "wide credit" of key areas and weak links in the way of "loan first and then loan", drip irrigation, small and medium-sized enterprises, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, carbon emission reduction and other key areas. In terms of total tools, the renewal of MLF in mid April and the meeting of the Political Bureau at the end of the month are important time points worthy of attention.
Overseas, the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has further increased this week, and the United States and Europe have successively increased sanctions against Russia. On the US side, the US Senate unanimously passed the bill banning the import of Russian oil and gas on Thursday, and reached an agreement to cancel the normal trade relations between the United States and Russia. On the EU side, EU Member States also reached a consensus on the implementation of the fifth round of sanctions against Russia, including measures such as banning the import of coal from Russia.
In response to the recent surging energy prices, the director of the International Energy Agency Birol said on social media that Member States would coordinate the release of 120 million barrels of oil, half of which came from the United States and the other half from other member states. The release is expected to be completed within six months. The scale of the release is the highest in nearly 45 years of the International Energy Agency.
In terms of liquidity, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting, which showed that in the future meeting, it was not ruled out that one or more interest rate hikes of 50bp were needed. The minutes also disclosed the details of interest rate hike for the first time: under the background of high inflation and tight labor market, the Federal Reserve will start to reduce its balance sheet as early as may, with a maximum monthly range of $95billion. In addition, Fed officials have also made biased statements to support this statement. Federal Reserve governor brennard said that the Federal Reserve is ready to take stronger action to tighten the currency and is expected to start a rapid contraction as early as may. Kansas City Fed chairman George said a one-time interest rate increase of 50 basis points was an option that must be considered. San Francisco Fed chairman Daley said the Fed would start the table contraction as soon as may.
In terms of economic data, the data of the U.S. Department of labor showed that as of April 2, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 166000, compared with the previous value of 202000, but on the whole, the U.S. labor market remained strong.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
