Event: on April 11, 2022, the people's Bank of China released monetary and financial data for March 2022. RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year, with the previous value of 1.23 trillion yuan; Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, the former value was 1.19 trillion yuan, the year-on-year growth rate of stock was 10.6%, and the former value was 10.2%; The growth rate of M2 was 9.7%, and the previous value was 9.2%.
Core view: the financing data in March was significantly higher than the market expectation and the same period last year. Since this year, the new financing has repeatedly switched between significantly higher and lower than the market expectation, which may be mainly due to the adjustment of policy strength under the background of "sufficient financing supply and weak physical demand". Looking ahead, the new financing still shows obvious short-term characteristics. The situation of sufficient financing supply and weak medium and long-term financing demand has not changed, indicating that the sustainability of wide credit still needs policy assistance, which depends on both the release of the reasonable part of the traditional financing demand by the policy and the compensation of the underlying policy for the passive contraction demand. With the further optimization of the financing policies of residents and enterprises in the real estate field and the driving of supporting financing by the successive implementation of infrastructure projects, it is expected that the wide credit will be gradually realized in twists and turns.
Financing: the financing fluctuation has increased, and the demand has not stabilized yet
In terms of total financing, the new social financing and credit in March were significantly higher than market expectations and the level of the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, new financing has repeatedly switched between significantly higher and significantly lower than market expectations, which may be mainly due to the policy adjustment under the background of "sufficient financing supply and weak physical demand". Overall, social finance increased by 12.06 trillion yuan in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 1.77 trillion yuan year-on-year; The credit increased by 8.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.67 trillion yuan year-on-year. The financing scale is more in line with expectations at the total level.
In terms of social finance structure, from the perspective of the economic sector, the enterprise sector is the main source of the year-on-year increase of new social finance this month. The net financing of the resident sector continues to be a drag, and the year-on-year driving effect of the net financing of the government sector is basically the same. In the early stage, "weak entity and advanced policy" is still the main melody of financing.
Since November 2021, the net financing of the residential sector has continued to increase slightly year-on-year, and the gap has widened. The weakening of net financing in the residential sector is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, the growth rate of real estate sales has continued to decline, and the demand for residential mortgage loans has continued to shrink; On the other hand, since March this year, the spread of the epidemic and the number of newly diagnosed people in China have significantly expanded. The epidemic prevention and control has had a significant impact on some consumption scenarios, weakening residents' demand for consumer credit.
The net financing of the enterprise sector has fluctuated greatly this year, which may be mainly affected by the repeated policy strength and the base under the background of "sufficient financing supply and weak physical demand": first, since the second half of last year, although the financing supervision for the real estate industry has been corrected, the confidence of the real estate industry has not been fully restored, and the demand for real estate development loans is still relatively low, Moreover, the repeated epidemic and other factors also make the willingness of enterprises to invest and expand production more limited; Second, under the policy demand of stable growth, the credit expansion is less than expected, which will promote the people's Bank of China to enhance the window guidance willingness. Therefore, the new financing will be repeatedly switched between "low growth caused by insufficient endogenous demand" and "high growth caused by policy overweight under the obstruction of credit expansion".
Money: the growth rate of narrow money is stable, and the capital vitality continues to pick up
The year-on-year growth difference of m1-m2 is basically stable, and the capital vitality continues to pick up. However, due to the current downward cycle of real estate sales and the active destocking stage of physical enterprises, the capital vitality is still at a low level in terms of absolute level.
Risk tip: the implementation of the policy was less than expected, the local epidemic of covid-19 pneumonia spread on a large scale, and the promotion of major projects around the country was less than expected.
