Macro: internationally, the yield spread between China and the United States showed an upside down in the intraday trading on April 11, which was the low point in recent ten years, indicating the strengthening of the dislocation of China US monetary policy cycle. At the Chinese level, the pressure of epidemic control has further increased, which has a significant impact on short-term economic growth. High frequency data show that China's economic growth has continued to move downward since March, and this trend also continued in early April. In terms of credit, the stock of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year in March, and the sub item of new RMB loans was 3.23 trillion, which was significantly stronger than expected. On the one hand, March is usually the big month of credit, on the other hand, the enhanced effectiveness of the previous steady growth signal was reflected, and the credit policy continued to work. At present, the complexity and uncertainty of China's external environment have intensified, China's epidemic has occurred frequently recently, and the difficulties of market players have increased significantly. On April 6, the national Standing Committee stressed that "steady growth should be placed in a more prominent position". On the one hand, we should strengthen the rescue efforts for catering, retail, tourism, civil aviation, highway, waterway and railway transportation and other special poverty-stricken industries and small, medium and micro enterprises; On the other hand, it is pointed out that monetary policy should make timely and flexible use of refinancing and other tools, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy. On the whole, the loose expectation of monetary policy is enhanced. Considering that the profits previously handed over by the central bank may fill the long-term liquidity gap, the probability of interest rate reduction by Omo and MLF is increased. Throughout the year, the growth rate in the first quarter may be lower than the target of 5.5%, and it is expected to recover upward in the second half of the year.
Stocks: last week, the world's major indexes generally closed down, and the NASDAQ index fell by 3.86%. The Chinese market all fell, and the growth enterprise market, science and innovation board and other indexes fell significantly, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes fell relatively little. Last week, the average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen was + 938.5 billion, up from last week. Last week, five industries rose and 25 industries fell; Construction, steel, building materials and other industries led the increase; Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronics, new energy and other industries led the decline. Western infrastructure, western cement, gold and other concept sectors led the increase; Cro index, food safety, photovoltaic inverter and other concept sectors led the decline. The spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the response measures affected the economy. The epidemic spread rapidly in Shanghai. From March 1 to April 8, 156024 people were newly diagnosed and asymptomatic infected in Shanghai. Shanghai's GDP accounts for 15% of the national total and plays an important leading role in the national economy. The epidemic in Shanghai is bound to affect the national economy. The economic growth target for 2022 is 5.5%. Unexpected factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Shanghai epidemic may affect the realization of the economic target. In addition to increasing measures to stabilize growth, stabilizing employment and prices is another focus of the current policy. The US inflation pressure remains unchanged, and the Fed may shrink its watch ahead of schedule. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, focusing on investment opportunities in the directions of steady growth, price rise and risk avoidance. It is suggested to maintain 60% of the position and pay attention to construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and non silver in the short term.
Bonds: after the Qingming Festival holiday, the bond market fluctuated little, the overall market declined slightly, and the overall market was relatively flat. On the news front, mainly after the prime minister's statement at the national standing committee that "deploy and timely use monetary policy tools", the loose expectation of the bond market once strengthened and the interest rate decreased slightly. Subsequently, the wording of the press release was wider and did not clearly point to the total monetary policy tools such as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, which cooled the market sentiment and made a slight correction. The weekly yield curve is basically parallel and slightly downward. U.S. bond interest rates rose rapidly. The iconic 10-year interest rate difference between China and the United States hung upside down when the market opened this week. The market was worried that the interest rate difference between China and the United States restricted the people's Bank of China from reducing interest rates, and the interest rate was adjusted to a certain extent. It is expected that this week, the market will still play a game on the possibility of interest rate reduction by the people's Bank of China at the time of data release and MLF operation, and the fluctuation range will be enlarged.
Asset allocation: stocks 25%, bonds 25%, commodities 25%, REITs 25%.
Risk warning: policy and economic data prediction are not as expected, and unexpected risk events, etc; The large asset allocation simulation portfolio is only used for back testing, and the past rate of return does not represent the future situation.