Main points
The short-term high price situation is difficult to change
CPI leveled month on month and did not show a seasonal decline, indicating that the supply shock of the epidemic affected the inherent trend of price operation. Geopolitical factors led to the continuous rise in the price of industrial consumer goods, and the impact of superimposed epidemic factors on food was also reflected. The rise of CPI accelerated, but the core CPI remained stable. Although PPI continued to decline, it was mainly affected by the rise of the base and rose again month on month, indicating that the impact under the energy shock was expanded. Although the economy is relatively sluggish in the short term and the demand is weak, the short-term high price situation is difficult to change and the inflationary pressure is rising due to the impact of the massive general rise caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Increased market volatility
Under the dual pressure of geographical situation and market risk, the capital market continues or faces the trend of increasing volatility in the short term. In view of the current inflation situation, the downward trend of China's interest rate curve will also temporarily pause or even fluctuate. China's capital market is still in the stage of restraining, but the depth and length of restraining may increase.
The reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates will be delayed, but will not be absent
In addition, it will be difficult for China to reduce interest rates in the absence of the overseas monetary policy, but it will not be difficult to reduce interest rates, but it will not be difficult to delay the adjustment of interest rates. On the one hand, the epidemic has increased the demand for steady growth, and the orientation of monetary policy this year is to pay equal attention to both aggregate and structure. On the other hand, the insufficient growth capacity of China's basic currency is the basic problem of China's monetary system. To maintain the stability of policy interest rate and monetary growth, RRR reduction is still an indispensable option in the future. Under the monetary endogenous system, the core problem of China's current monetary environment lies not in loose quantity, but in too expensive prices, that is, the financing interest rate of small and medium-sized enterprises is high, and interest rate reduction is the effective solution. The total amount of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction policies can be expected to cooperate with the inclusive + green structural tools to promote the steady decline of enterprise financing costs and help enterprises relieve difficulties and stabilize employment.
Risk tips
Inflation continues to rise; Repeated changes in the epidemic situation exceeded expectations again; Monetary policy changed more than expected.
