From January to February 2022, with the steady growth policy and the increase of support for the real economy, a number of economic data showed signs of recovery, but the year-on-year data of infrastructure, manufacturing investment and consumption also showed good performance, which was also due to the support of the low base in the same period of last year, overestimating the actual growth to a certain extent.
In February, social finance fell short of market expectations, and the growth rate of social finance turned to decline. In March, MLF and LPR interest rates were flat, and the expectation of further monetary easing failed. However, it does not mean the end of loose monetary policy. The two sessions and the meeting of the financial committee after the meeting have repeatedly stressed that "new loans should maintain moderate growth". We believe that the central government has a firm attitude towards steady growth, and the overall social credit environment in 2022 will be further relaxed than that in 2021. The Fed's interest rate hike has some constraints on China's monetary policy, but the strong RMB exchange rate can cushion the risk of the Fed's interest rate hike to a certain extent, and there is still room for China's monetary policy.
In terms of industry, the international oil price has soared, the cost of the middle and lower reaches of the oil industry chain is under pressure, and the credit risk deserves attention; The epidemic situation, the rise of raw materials and the tension of supply chain increase the uncertainty of automobile production and marketing. The price rise tide of new energy vehicle enterprises may accelerate the industry differentiation pattern, and the risk of tail enterprises with weak cost control ability and capital strength will rise; Real estate investment continues to bottom out. Under the background of improving the policy environment, the capital level of real estate enterprises is expected to improve marginally, but it will take time for the policy effect to appear. In the short term, the capital level pressure is still large, and the industry credit risk may continue to be released.
